Monday, 15 February 2016

Weather diary Sunday 7th to Saturday 13th February 2016

Headline: unsettled start became mostly dry; around average temperatures

Addendum: Sat 6th Bablake School, Coventry 32.2mm for rain day ( to 0900 Su 7th) was wettest February day on record (srb 1892) and wettest day since 24/11/12 (37.4mm)

Sun 7th sunny intervals and a few showers, rain and strong winds later. Mild by evening (Pershore 9.8c, )

Mon 8th windy, showery, severe gales exposed coasts and hills of Wales (highest gust Pembrey Sands 84mph) as Storm Imogen tracked to our north.. Some power outages, coastal damage and trees down especially over SW Wales which did though escape the worst of the showers along with the south Midlands, For North Wales and parts of the North and West Midlands quite frequent and heavy showers. Temperatures average to rather mild (Mumbles 9.6c, Pershore 9.7c).

Tue 9th wind eased, a few showers, clearing to frost (generally only on the ground) in places by dawn (Llanwnnen -0.2c, Shobdon ). Mostly dry with sunny spells Midlands. Bright morning to showers Wales which became prolonged and wintry in places, snow on hills with several inches for the Brecon Beacons. Maxima well up to average across the Midlands, near average maxima most of Wales as well although it turned decidedly cold in the precipitation here afternoon (Hereford 8.2c, Pembrey 8.1c). Turned out decidedly wet pm across Ceredigion (Llanwnnen 17mm).

Wed 10th few showers became mostly dry and bright, temperatures average to mild although it tended to feel quite chilly (Pershore 10.1c, Mumbles 9.4c, ). Clear periods widepread frost set in evening.

Thu 11th widespread air frost (Llanwnnen -5.2c, Pershore -3.8c). Sunny spells, most of the showers around coastal Wales, Midlands mostly dry. Average to mild temperatures again (Milford Haven 10.7c, Hereford 9.9c). Parts of Midlands almost unbroken sunshine (Wellesbourne 7.9 hrs).

Fri 12th frost in places, air frost much of Midlands, some showers in places. Mostly dry, rather cloudy WW, sunny spells Midlands, temps around average (Pembrey 9.1c, Pershore 8.3c).

Sat 13th a little rain with hill snow in the south of our regions otherwise a dry day rather cloudy but with sunny spellls parts of WW. Rather cold (Milford Haven 6.9c, Little Rissington max 2.7c).

Nature notes: cooler spell slowed down the Daffodil bloom, they are still not quite in flower on the verge opposite (normally early to mid March these). Quite a few Celandine now out. Brighter calmer days have had decent birdsong, especially Tit, Blackbird.

Sunday, 7 February 2016

Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th February 2016

Last week's review: rather unsettled, fluctuating temperatures but often mild

Sun 31st Jan exceptionally mild, mostly cloudy with a little rain or drizzle. Mildest January day in the 11 year record here at Llanwnnen the max of 13.0c beating the previous Sunday's 12.8c (Pershore 14.2c, Trawsgoed 12.8c).

Mon 1st Feb very mild night, many places staying in double figures (min Hereford 11.5c, Trawsgoed 11.0c). some sunny intervals and a few showers but many places stayed dry. Very mild, even exceptionally mild over parts of the Midlands (Pershore 14.7c, Trawsgoed 12.7c).

Tue 2nd a little rain in places, most dry though. Sunny intervals (quite sunny parts of Midlands, Coventry 5 hr sun), some showers, mainly WW, where some heavy with hail and turned wintry over hills during the evening. A cooler, fresher day but temperatures still somewhat above average (Pershore 9.3c, Mumbles 9.1c)

Wed 3rd widespread ground frost Midlands, WW generally too breezy and cloudy (Shobdon air min 0.7c). Chilly NW breeze though still average to quite mild (Pershore 10.0c, Milford Haven 9.2c). Some showers, mostly mid and north Wales, these wintry over high ground with up to 2 inches snow lying over the Peak District above 1000 feet first thing.  Quite a sunny day parts of the Midlands (Shobdon 6.6hrs).

Thu 4th turned mild overnight with a some rain in places. Very mild, a lot of cloud, a little rain or drizzle in places though many places stayed essentially dry as pressure quite high (Pershore 13.7c, Pembrey Sands 11.8c).

Fri 5th: mild and mostly cloudy, some patchy rain or drizzle, with Wales in particular turning wet and windy later (Hereford 12.1c, Mumbles 10.3c).

Sat 6th rain cleared with ground frost in places. Wet and became windy Wales and West Midlands, the worst of it holding off the East Midlands until evening. Parts of Wales and the West Midlands had well over an inch of rain, Coventry wettest in the Midlands with 37.2mm (24 hrs to 2100). A mild day (Pershore 11.4c, Mumbles 10.4c).

Many Daffodils now in flower, a month ahead of usual (of course in some places they were out before Christmas!). Snowdrops out profusely since late January have not been tricked. Blackbird, Song Thrush, Mistle Thrush, Great Tit increasingly in song.

January 2016 review: mild, wet and rather dull

Although we did see a cold spell of sorts mid month this was nothing really of note with hardly any snow and frost few and far from severe. An unseasonably mild to end the month somewhat reminiscent of the ridiculously mild weather we had through December! Everywhere saw above average rainfall and a for a some it was a very wet month. Here at Llanwnnen it was the third successive month over 200mm and November to January has become the wettest 3 month period I have recorded having 796.8mm (Dec 2013 to Feb 2014 782mm). Temperature records broken in places near month end as we saw maxima close to 60f with some nights remaining above 10c. Sunshine beow average in most places, and for some a rather a dull month.

Some January rainfall totals:

Valley 112.6mm (149%)
Llanwnnen 217.6mm (151%)
Llanelli 217.7mm
Milford Haven c. 190mm (c. 175%)

Coventry, Bablake School 86.0mm (144%0
Long Lawford 64.4mm (120%)
Church Lawford 74.5mm (136%)
Dunchurch, Warks 62mm
Crick, Northants 91.1mm
Daventry 74.4mm
Pershore c. 79mm (c. 149%)
Hereford c. 97mm (c. 147%)

And sunshine:

Valley 44.8 (77%)
Llanwnnen 37 hrs estimated (81%)
Coventry 53.7 hrs (85%)

The week ahead: unsettled with around average temperatures, perhaps rather cold to end to the week 

No let up in this unsetled spell, further showers and some longer spells of wet weather to come this week although some days may well turn out mainly dry and bright, particularly midweek for the Midlands. Temperatures fluctuating somewhat but not deviating greatly from normal February levels, so maxima between 5 and 9c are expected most days. Perhaps complications later in the week with some colder air and snow potential more likely for high ground. Frost may become quite widespread after midweek given any clear spells.

Rain cleared the East Midlands soon after midnight, a few showers left behind, chiefly over Wales, the odd sheltered spot had a brief grass frost (as here at Llanwnnen, air min +1.8c). Sunny intervals and a few scattered showers Sunday, a respite before named 'Storm Imogen' moves towards Northern Ireland tonight and impacts with widespread gales overnight and during Monday. It turns wet and windy later this afternoon across WW, rain quickly spreading across the Midlands too this evening. Wet and windy then this evening with severe gales for exposed places, maxima at 10 or 11c also during this evening in the warm sector of the system. It then becomes more showery after midnight, winds stong to gale force.

The deep low crosses Scotland on Monday, a very windy showery day, severe gales more especially for exposed coasts and hills, where gusts could top 80mph, but almost anywhere could get some damaging gusts of 60mph from the west. The showers merging into some longer spells of wet weather, especially over parts of Wales, there will be hail and a chance of thunder with perhaps some turning wintry over high ground as we are in somewhat colder air. Temperatures in the afternoon between 6 and 9c, with winds at least starting to decrease during the evening. Further showers Monday night, the chance of a longer spell of wet weather for a time affecting southern-most parts of our regions. Should winds moderate sufficiently then ground frost locally, but generally still too much wind and cloud/ showers.

Colder but less windy Tuesday, most of the showers, again with hail, over Wales, parts of the Midlands dry and bright, highs 5 to 8c, still quite windy but not with gales and shifting into the NW during the day. Most of the showers die out Tuesday night, clear spells and a widespread ground frost, lowest readings around 0c. A semblance of a ridge gives a mostly dry bright day Wednesday, at least for the Midlands, still a few showers for parts of WW though, maxima 6 to 8c with much lighter winds. Again a fairly widespread ground frost Wednesday night, a few showers scattered about too.

Differing options arise as soon as Thursday this week, some models showing slack, somewhat showery air, while others bring in the next low with its attendant spell of wind and rain. Chillier signals Thursday and Friday though means that any unsettled weather could result in snow potentially for hilly areas, while any clear calm spells by night will see temperatures getting below zero, as low as -3c. Next weekend looks like turing more definitely unsettled once more with showers or longer spells of rain with the possibility of some hill snow still. Maxima expected to be in the 5 to 8c range.