Sunday, 24 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 25th to Sunday 31st January 2016

Last weeks review: much drier, rather cold with frost and local fog; very mild from Thursday night with some rain

Sun 17th contrasting conditions: cold with a little rain, sleet or snow Midlands but a thaw of lying snow; temperatures back up close to average for WW and fairly mild over Pembrokeshire, and it was cloudy with some drizzle, especially evening (Milford Haven 9.2c, Church Lawford max 1.2c). 

Mon 18th drier and in places brighter than expected WW with temperatures only a little below average,  less cold for the Midlands and largely dry here too  (Valley 7.6c, Coleshill & Pershore 5.6c)

Tue 19th frosty over the Midlands, a ground frost very locally inland WW, but generally too much cloud here (Pershore -4.7c, Llanwnnen +0.8c). The exceptionally prolonged rainy spell came to end for WW, with the 24 hours to 0900 being the first such period to collect below 0.2mm since late November! Dry day, variable sunshine and temperatures. Well up to average on sunny Anglesey and in the Birmingham area (Valley 8.7c, Coleshill 6.8c) but most places on the cold side, while fog must have persisted all day in the Hereford area (max 0.1c).
Variable temperatures Tuesday

Wed 20th hard frost quite widespread with freezing fog in places, frost only slight NE Midlands (Shobdon -7.4c, Llanwnnen -6.9c). A sunny day in most places, virtually unbroken for many (Llanwnnen est 7.5 hrs, Valley 7.4, Shawbury 7.0 hrs), although again freezing fog persisted much of the day along some valleys of the West Midlands and Marches. On the cold side for most, Anglesey close to average, while some foggy areas remained sub zero all day (Mona 7.2c, Hereford max -2.2c).

Thu 21st frosty night, this lifted from WW as cloud and breeze picked up (Hereford -6.0c, Capel Curig -3.9c). Mostly cloudy with a little rain or drizzle. WW turned mild pm while it was rather cold Midlands until evening (Porthmadog 10.6c, Nottingham 5.0c).

Fri 22nd some rain and mild overnight (very mild WW), the East Midlands mostly dry. Rain cleared all areas by early afternoon with sunny intervals following, only a little rain parts of West Midlands (Capel Curig 36mm, Coleshill 2.0mm). Very mild but breezy (Pershore 13.2c, Trawsgoed 12.5c). 

Sat 23rd dry, rather mild night, although local ground frost Midlands. Mild or very mild, bright Midlands am, but some rain/ drizzle to most parts pm (Gogerddan 11.9c, Pershore College 10.5c).

The week ahead: very mild to mild and unsettled; heavy rain and gales in places, especially Tuesday/ Wednesday

Storm Jonas that has just given the historically deep snowfall up to 3 or 4 feet deep over the NE USA will arrive close to our shores during Tuesday and Wednesday, most definitely not bringing snow however, rather heavy rain and strong to gale force winds and further very mild weather. The week overall being mild or very mild with rain at times, cool ridging briefly from time to time may just about permit the odd slight frost temporarily.

Saturday night has been very mild within this warm sector, the temperatures rising above 10c and up to 11 to 13c widely this morning (at Gogerddan it was close to 13c overnight).  Occasional rain or drizzle through the night, some heavy orographic rain over Snowdonia, mostly cloudy as well as very mild Sunday with further mostly light rain or drizzle on and off, chiefly for WW. Much of the Midlands mostly dry today and it could brighten here and with the tropical airmass temperatures exceptionally mild reaching 14 possibly 15c where this happens. Generally though 12 or 13c the highs today, even this being 4 to 6c above the January average, a brisk SW wind. Very mild with the odd spot of drizzle tonight, no lower than 8c.

Very mild and rather cloudy Monday, a trough bringing some showery rain across especially afternoon, although not much expected for the Midlands, highs 11 to 14c (highest Midlands), fresh to strong SW wind. Any patchy rain clears evening and cooler, perhaps a ground frost locally overnight West Midlands under a bit of a ridge, but the next fronts are on the way bringing rain and strong winds to WW by around dawn. Tuesday's deep low that tracks close to northern Scotland was Jonas, but our situation to its south means we shall experience the very mild moist tropical air that this system contains. Perhaps early brightness East Midlands but a cloudy, windy day, and a  thoroughly wet one likely across much of Wales, with spells of rain affecting the Midlands too afternoon. Strong to gale force SW winds, we could be seeing flooding and wind daamge issues eventually during Tuesday. Somewhat acadamic maxima between 10 and 13c which are very mild again.

Rain and wind perhaps easing for a time during Tuesday night, but further waves on the fronts or even a secondary low are following to give further spells of wet and windy weather later in the night and well into Wednesday. Temperatures likely to remain in double figures throughout Tuesday night with Wednesday very mild again if often wet and windy, highs 11 to 14c, the East Midlands in particular could see some drier, possibly brighter intervals. Another windy day with gales possible in places. A clearance should be taking place come evening or at latest by midnight, but by then 100mm plus rainfall totals in 36 hours or so are likely to have fallen across parts of north and west Wales (around 200mm for Capel Curig?), no doubt with flooding in places. The cool ridge following brings a sharp drop in temps during Wednesday night with a frost in places as the wind drops.

Cooler and drier Thursday, sunny intervals, particularly Midlands, while WW will see a few showers. Tending to cloud over afternoon WW with more rain fronts looking set to arrive during the evening. Thursday highs 7 to 9c. It is then likely to turn milder and windy with rain at times overnight, temperatures perhaps rising into double figures celsius once more  after midnight. Friday and we may be experiencing another lingering front with more wet and windy weather in certain yet to ascertained regions, at least it will be mild! The weekend continues in similar vein, unsettled with further wind and rain at times and often mild. Few if any signs of any proper cold weather well into February, and so Winter 2015/16 looks quite likely to end up the mildest on record for the past 350 years.

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