Sunday, 31 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 1st to Sunday 7th February 2016

Last week's review: very mild and unsettled, colder Saturday

Unsettled and mostly very mild, most of the week seeing small amounts of rain for the Midlands although Friday evening did see substantial rain here too.

Sun 24th Jan exceptionally mild with rain or drizzle parts of WW (especially Snowdonia), mainly dry Midlands, some places saw their highest January temperatures on record. Here at Llanwnnen it peaked at 12.8c early evening, this pipping 12.7c recorded last January (Trawsgoed 14.5c, Hereford 14.4c).

Mon 25th exceptionally mild again, night time temperatures widely remaining above 10c across Wales, at Gogerddan the 'low' was 12.5c, this a Wales high January minimum record and which would be a typical July night reading (also Anglesey min 11.5c)! Exceptionally mild again, some sunny intervals but a lot of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places for a time, mainly afternoon (Pershore 14.6c, Capel Curig 14.1c).

Tue 26th mild generally dry night. Dull, wet and windy WW, some rain or drizzle Midlands too but many places only very small amounts if any (Nottingham 0mm). Very mild (Hereford 12.9c, Trawsgoed 12.2c),  83mph wind gusts and 66mm rain at  Capel Curig.

Wed 27th another rather exceptionally mild night, many places stayed above 10c (Aberporth 11.1c, Shawbury 11.6c). Further rain and drizzle for a time Wednesday again more especially Wales (Capel Curig 86mm in 24 hours). Very mild, but WW cooler pm (Shawbury 14.1c, Trawsgoed 12.8c).

Thu 28th fairly widespread ground frost and more local air frost (Llanwnnen min -1.2c, Nottingham 0.0c). Dry and bright for a time Thursday but showery rain affected WW pm, and it was rather a wet afternoon in places, with a little rain for the Midlands too later but some places stayed largely dry with sunny intervals. Less mild than of late ( Hereford 10.4c, Milford Haven 10.3c).

Fri 29th very mild night temperatures continuing to rise. Occasional rain or drizzle WW this affecting parts of the Midlands afternoon although with sunny intervals here. More general wet weather across Wales and much of the Midlands evening, a few places getting close to an inch. Strong to gale force winds affected NW Wales for a time. Very mild (Shobdon 13.2c, Trawsgoed 11.7c).

Sat 30th rain at times, chiefly Midlands night (Coventry 20.2mm). Colder with sunny intervals and just a few showers (Mumbles 8.0c, Pershore 7.9c).

The week ahead: unsettled (Midlands mainly dry though Tuesday to Thursday) with fluctuating temperatures but little frost

It has became very mild once more overnight across Wales, this warm front with occasional light rain or drizzle spreading to the Midlands too during Sunday morning. Cloudy and very mild then for this afternoon with a little rain or drizzle in places, chiefly WW, highs today 11 to 13c, a fresh SW to west wind, a fitting way to end another mild Winter month! Very mild tonight with further drizzle in places no lower than 8c anywhere, with some staying above 10c. Monday sees 'Storm Henry' impacting northern UK, no damaging winds for us, but the cold front tracks SE during the day bringing some showery rain and eventually cooler air, although for the most part a very mild day again with temperatures in the 11 to 14c range (mildest brighter parts of the Midlands). A fresh to strong west wind which may be reaching gale force over North Wales by evening accompanying squally showers with hail.

Quite windy with showers in places then Monday night, probably too much wind for frost, just very locally it may ease enough towards dawn for ground frost to briefly form, generally no lower than 3c. With the low over Scandinavia by Tuesday we are in a colder showery NW flow, although 'colder' in Winter 2015/16 equates to average! Sunny intervals and some showers affecting WW in particular, these of hail at times, only a few reaching the sheltered Midlands where many have a dry, bright day. Maxima Tuesday 5 to 8c, mildest South Wales coast and South Midlands. Hail showers continuing to rattle across WW during Tuesday night, with snow possible for high ground above 200m or so, a mostly dry night Midlands with ground frost in places, lows close to 0c very locally given adequate shelter from the keen NW wind.

A bit of a ridge Wednesday should kill off most of the shower activity, so mostly dry with sunny spells, although there may be a residual shower streamer through parts of North Wales into the Midlands for a time in the morning. Highs again close to average at 5 to 8c, moderate to fresh WNW breezes. There may be a touch of frost for a time Wednesday evening into the early hours of Thursday with lighter winds and clear spells but this soon disappears from Wales as further cloud and fronts arrive from off the Atlantic with most places cloudy, milder and damp by dawn. Thursday then we are within a warm sector so a mild and mostly cloudy day with some rain or drizzle in places, although much of the Midlands perhaps getting little more than a dampening. Maxima in the 9 to 12c range with a fresh SW wind.

We may get a more active cold front come down Friday bringing a spell of wet and windy weather at some stage during the day, with most likely a mild morning turing colder and showery pm, highs 7 to 10c. Next weekend is decidedly unsetttled as a complex low system slowly crosses the UK with pressure getting to low levels of perhaps below 980mbar. Showers or longer spells of rain the order of the weekend, there could be rather heavy falls of rain with potential flooding for some areas, temperatures around average and it will be windy at times with the risk of gales. There is also a possibilty of significant hill snow above 250m at some stage next weekend which may need watching. Out to mid February it looks like continuing unsettled with around average temperatures but little frost or snow.

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