Sunday, 17 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 18th to Sunday 24th January 2016

Last weeks review: often rather cold with some showers, wintry in places; some frost

Sunday 10th sunny intervals and showers but mostly dry Midlands, a colder day though still quite mild along the south coast of Wales (Pembrey 8.9c, Shawbury 7.2c, Llanwnnen max 5.0c). Nottingham managed a sunny day with 6 hours!

Mon 11th ground frost in places, also showery rain in places overnight. Sunny intervals for some lifted temperatures to around or slightly above average (especially SW Wales) while others were mostly cloudy and rather cold (especially Midlands, Milford Haven 9.2c, Shobdon 7.3c, Church Lawford max 4.5c). Only a few showers mostly these quite light.

Tue 12th some showers over WW night, mostly dry with ground frost over most of the Midlands, too much breeze and cloud Wales. Rather cloudy and showery day, hail in the showers, with longer spells of wet weather in some areas while a few places remained dry (Capel Curig 27mm, Milford Haven 0mm). A little sleet or snow reported parts of West Midlands.  Temps near average (Hereford 7.6c, Pembrey 7.5c).

Wed 13th widespread ground frost as showers cleared, local air frost (Llanwnnen -0.8c, Little Rissington +0.5c). Dry and quite sunny Midlands in the morning, plentiful showers and some longer spells of rain though for WW, wintry in places, these reaching most of the Midlands by evening. Average to rather cold temperatures (Pembrey 9.0c, Hereford 7.3c, Little Rissingon & Llanwnnen max 4.5c).

Thu 14th still some wintry showers overnight which gave a covering of snow in places including parts of the NW Midlands such as the Birmingham area and some hilly areas of Wales . A fairly widespread ground frost Midlands, most of WW too much of a breeze though (Little Rissington air min -0.6c, Capel Curig 0.7c). Snow cover visible on distant hills of north Ceredigion from above Llanwnnen. Sunny spells, rather cold or cold excepting Pembrokeshire which missed most of the showers (Scolton, Pembs 7.3c, Little Rissington max 3.5c). Further wintry showers by evening with further coverings.

Fri 15th  ground frost and ice widespread, air frost localised (Little Rissington min -1.0c). Wintry showers gave appreciable falls of snow to some higher ground of Wales, especially Snowdonia and Brecon Beacons (6-8 inches reported Western Beacons), even some slight slushy accumulations to lower levels in places ( at Llanwnnen we managed 1cm of slushy hail by morning).  A Cheshire Gap streamer of showers affected a strip of the NW and central Midlands as far as Birmingham where there was a covering as well; Swyddfynnon (Ceredigion) wettest place with 19.8mm from all the showers. Much of the Midlands and Pembrokeshire had a dry day though and the former a sunny one. Cold to rather cold everywhere (Valley 6.5c, Little Rissington 3.6c).

Sat 16th any showers died out to clear spells and frost (Tirabad -6.1c, Pershore -4.1c).  Rather cloudy for most, a little rain, sleet or snow in places (chiefly Midlands evening). Another rather cold or cold day although Pembrokeshire was in milder air (Milford Haven 8.0c, Shawbury, Salop max 2.9c). Less cold air spread to most of Wales overnight while the central and eastern Midlands saw a snowfall with a couple of inches reported from such places as Northampton and Leicester.

The week ahead: rather cold to midweek, some rain, sleet or snow dying out; then mild with rain and wind at times

Still we await that elusive dry day for West Wales, Llanwnnen has now had 55 consecutive rain days although at least the quantities have diminished! This has smashed the previous record of 35 days in 2014 but we are still hopeful that a dry day is imminent with Wednesday looking the best chance. The chilly weather hangs on especially over the Midlands through to the middle of the week, less cold over SW Wales though and mild everywhere across our regions come Thursday night/ Friday.

A lot of cloud still Sunday afternoon though the sun breaking through in places, still the odd spot of rain or sleet about. Cold over the Midlands no higher than 2 or 3c with a slow thaw of lying snow, milder across WW at 5 to 7c. Fronts edging in from the SW this evening bringing rain across much of Wales by midnight, with light rain, sleet or snow over the West Midlands too by morning where the air is still cold. A slow moving trough gives a cloudy raw Monday, rain at times, especially over Wales, still it could be falling as sleet or snow over the Midlands, but should be turning to rain except above 200m, while the far East Midlands beyond Leicester should remain dry.  Maxima generally quite cold at 3 to 5c, but more like 7c Pembrokeshire which is again in somewhat milder air.

The cold air wins out Monday night killing of the fronts over Wales, clear spells and frost over the Midlands once any light rain, sleet or snow dies out over the West Mildands. Still bits and pieces of rain over WW which could be turning to sleet or snow particularly above 200m and where there could be a covering by dawn Tuesday, down to -2c over the Midlands. Tuesday likely to be the coldest day of the week, mostly cloudy still with a chance of a little rain, sleet or snow across WW and more especially Pembrokeshire (rain) by this stage, the Midlands should be dry with sunny spells, and North Wales could also be dry with the sun breaking through too. Maxima just 2 to 4c with light winds, although Pembrokeshire could manage 5c.  Clear spells and frost widespread away from coastal WW Tuesday night, lowest temperatures -5c Marches, with freezing fog in places.

High pressure over the North Sea continues to block the advance of Atlantic fronts during Wednesday as well. A generally dry and rather cold day with sunny intervals, and for some quite a sunny day (provided any fog clears), highs again just 2 to 4c, but perhaps 5c Pembrokeshire.  We should then manage another frosty night before this cold spell ends. Rain fronts accompanied by a freshening SE wind should be moving into Wales during Thursday but this may be a slow process and the Midlands could get one last dry cold day. Maxima may not exceed 5c over the East Midlands during daylight Thursday while WW should be up to at least 8c come evening with rain and strong southerly winds. Rain and wind should then affect the Midlands as well at some stage Thursday night with snow looking unlikely as temperatures are on the rise.

Friday and the weekend we are more definitely in a mild SW flow as lows track to the NW of Scotland. Friday then mild and cloudy with rain at times, some could be heavy especially over the hills of Wales, maxima a big change could be in the 9 to 12c range! Rather unsettled with further rain at times over the weekend, wettest NW Wales closer to the fronts, with perhaps only small amounts for the Midlands where high pressure to our SE could be having an influence. Maxima in the 8 to 12c range with frost not expected and it will be windy at times. A return to sustained cold conditions looks most unlikely through to the start of February and with rainfall graphs showing only modest spikes we can hope for drier conditions in the west!

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