Sunday, 10 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 11th to Sunday 17th January 2016

Last weeks review: unsettled; mild to average temperatures

Nature has readjusted us kindly towards more typical Winter conditions following the perpetual October temperatures of December, this much more preferred a transition rather than being plunged immediately into snow and harsh frosts! Even though - January has started off  mild and wet in similar but much less extreme vein to December.

Sunday 3rd January mild, rain cleared followed by sunny intervals and some showers in the west (Milford Haven & Mumbles 11.3c, Pershore 9.6c).

Mon 4th less mild, cloudy, showery WW, some heavy and prolonged, only a few showers Midlands whre some stayed dry, although quite a crop made it into Glos via Bristol Channel. Maxima generally 8 to 10c away from the South Wales coast (Milford Haven 11.0c, Shobdon 9.1c). 

Tue 5th low pressure sat over Wales, however fewer showers generally than on Monday, although Mid and South Wales did see an area of rain or showers close to the low centre afternoon this moving into the SW Midlands evening with some heavy rain over Herefordshire. Maxima down closer to average at 7 to 9c (Pembrey 9.8c, Shobdon 9.1c) and few places glimpsed the sun! Clear periods gave ground frost to parts of inland Wales by midight. 

Wed 6th ground frost in places (air min Llanwnnen +0.3c). A foggy start with a few vestigial light showers but a mostly dry day with a few sunny intervals and average to mild temps (Milford Haven 10.6c, Hereford 9.6c). Rain to WW evening spreading east to the Midlands overnight.

Thu 7th showers in places, some heavy, at least with sunny intervals, after a mild night the afternoon was quite chilly (Pembrey 10.6c max before dawn, Pershore 9.0c). Frosty in many places evening although with further showers about still.

Fri 8th frost for many (air min Llanwnnen -2.1c, Little Rissington & Shawbury -0.8c). Heavy and prolonged showers affected NW Wales overnight into Friday morning (Capel Curig 29mm overnight) but a dry night for most of the Midlands. Sunny intervals and a few scattered showers, chiefly over Wales, rather mild temps once more (Pembrey 10.6c, Pershore College 10.2c).

Sat 9th ground frost in places overnight with an air frost registered in the Herefordshire countryside (Shobdon air min -0.3c), further rain affected WW  at times during the night. Further rain or showers for most places Saturday, with some heavy over Wales in particular, but on the whole quite small amounts for the Midlands. Again a fairly mild day, various places reaching around 10c (Wellesbourne 10.2c) which is 2 or 3c above their January averages while parts of WW received an inch of rain.

The week ahead: turning colder with frosty nights; showery (wintry from midweek) but drier by the weekend

We are about to get our first and belated cold snap of Winter, some of us could see some snow, probably not much though, but the good news (especially for us in Wales) is that the weather is becoming somewhat drier even with perhaps a dry day or 2 eventually before much longer. A dry spell is greatly needed as here at Llanwnnen we have now recorded 49 consecutive rain days having at least 0.2mm and no day has been completely dry since November 2nd! After just 9 days we have had 105mm rain here so in spite of some drier weather January is still going to end up wet in many areas. Uncertainties with the impending cold snap/ spell as to just how cold, how much snow and where, and how long it lasts, although there does seem a model consensus that this will not be a prolonged severe cold or snowy spell even if some places do see a covering of snow by the end of the week!

Further showers with hail affected WW during Saturday night, only a few making it across the Midlands. Sunny intervals and showers through Sunday as well, again some heavy and containing hail, relatively few affecting the Midlands where some manage a dry bright afternoon. Maxima fairly mild once more at 7 to 9c with a moderate SW breeze. Showers still largely restricted to Wales overnight also, clear intervals will permit a ground frost in places, it may dip to 0c very locally. A slack centred low pressure is over the UK Monday so another unsettled sunny intervals and showers day ahead but some areas escape with a dry day (chiefly but not exclusively Midland locations), maxima again above average at 7 to 9c, light or moderate breezes. Again, clearances and breeze permitting, some places getting a ground frost Monday night, perhaps most likely Midlands with WW seeing an increasing NW breeze.

A touch colder Tuesday as the low moves east and winds come from the NW, sunny intervals and further showers in places, hail could feature more strongly for WW and where showers could become quite frequent, they may also turn wintry later in the day over high ground. Highs 6 to 8c with a fresh cool NW wind. Showers should ease Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and local air frost, any showers above 200m could contain sleet or snow. Its getting a bit messy by Wednesday what with a weak ridge and shallow low on the scene. Perhaps tending to be a drier day, though still some wintry showers about, which may become more prevalent as the day progresses for WW, again with some hill snow. Highs 5 to 7c a little below average.

The models have been toying with the idea of a 'Channel Low' for Wednesday night into Thursday that may have brought with it a snow risk for the Midlands in particular, however for the time being that risk sems to have diminished with any low likely to track too far south across France (although still time for a change on this!). We should then have low pressure to our east come Thursday in some form or other dragging down rather cold air from the NNW bringing further showers, wintry in places, and there may be a longer spell of wet (potentially wintry) weather at some stage during the day, maxima rather cold at 4 to 6c, but any with any snow not likely to lie long on lower ground at least. Thursday night then turns frosty but with further wintry showers in places, which, as falling overnight, would have more chance of producing a covering come dawn.

It looks like being cold on Friday and probably over the weekend too with Friday again likely to feature a wintry mix of showers which give a covering in places, more especially over high ground. Friday night again should turn frosty, with quite a hard frost provided the wind eases, potential for -6c over Mid Wales and the Marches. Reasonable signs of more of a high pressure influence come the weekend, so probably generally dry with some sunshine, although we may still be seeing some wintry showers in places. The latest output from the ECM model brings a lovely cold high over the UK next weekend which would then be dry, bright, cold and frosty for a change (that is where freezing fog does not persist)! The demise of the cold weather should then take place the following week with mild westerlies likely to return for late January.

1 comment:

  1. I like cold winter so look forward to some - but don't really like sleety weather - the pits. But some dry would be marvellous, the mud is ridiculous