Sunday, 31 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 1st to Sunday 7th February 2016

Last week's review: very mild and unsettled, colder Saturday

Unsettled and mostly very mild, most of the week seeing small amounts of rain for the Midlands although Friday evening did see substantial rain here too.

Sun 24th Jan exceptionally mild with rain or drizzle parts of WW (especially Snowdonia), mainly dry Midlands, some places saw their highest January temperatures on record. Here at Llanwnnen it peaked at 12.8c early evening, this pipping 12.7c recorded last January (Trawsgoed 14.5c, Hereford 14.4c).

Mon 25th exceptionally mild again, night time temperatures widely remaining above 10c across Wales, at Gogerddan the 'low' was 12.5c, this a Wales high January minimum record and which would be a typical July night reading (also Anglesey min 11.5c)! Exceptionally mild again, some sunny intervals but a lot of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places for a time, mainly afternoon (Pershore 14.6c, Capel Curig 14.1c).

Tue 26th mild generally dry night. Dull, wet and windy WW, some rain or drizzle Midlands too but many places only very small amounts if any (Nottingham 0mm). Very mild (Hereford 12.9c, Trawsgoed 12.2c),  83mph wind gusts and 66mm rain at  Capel Curig.

Wed 27th another rather exceptionally mild night, many places stayed above 10c (Aberporth 11.1c, Shawbury 11.6c). Further rain and drizzle for a time Wednesday again more especially Wales (Capel Curig 86mm in 24 hours). Very mild, but WW cooler pm (Shawbury 14.1c, Trawsgoed 12.8c).

Thu 28th fairly widespread ground frost and more local air frost (Llanwnnen min -1.2c, Nottingham 0.0c). Dry and bright for a time Thursday but showery rain affected WW pm, and it was rather a wet afternoon in places, with a little rain for the Midlands too later but some places stayed largely dry with sunny intervals. Less mild than of late ( Hereford 10.4c, Milford Haven 10.3c).

Fri 29th very mild night temperatures continuing to rise. Occasional rain or drizzle WW this affecting parts of the Midlands afternoon although with sunny intervals here. More general wet weather across Wales and much of the Midlands evening, a few places getting close to an inch. Strong to gale force winds affected NW Wales for a time. Very mild (Shobdon 13.2c, Trawsgoed 11.7c).

Sat 30th rain at times, chiefly Midlands night (Coventry 20.2mm). Colder with sunny intervals and just a few showers (Mumbles 8.0c, Pershore 7.9c).

The week ahead: unsettled (Midlands mainly dry though Tuesday to Thursday) with fluctuating temperatures but little frost

It has became very mild once more overnight across Wales, this warm front with occasional light rain or drizzle spreading to the Midlands too during Sunday morning. Cloudy and very mild then for this afternoon with a little rain or drizzle in places, chiefly WW, highs today 11 to 13c, a fresh SW to west wind, a fitting way to end another mild Winter month! Very mild tonight with further drizzle in places no lower than 8c anywhere, with some staying above 10c. Monday sees 'Storm Henry' impacting northern UK, no damaging winds for us, but the cold front tracks SE during the day bringing some showery rain and eventually cooler air, although for the most part a very mild day again with temperatures in the 11 to 14c range (mildest brighter parts of the Midlands). A fresh to strong west wind which may be reaching gale force over North Wales by evening accompanying squally showers with hail.

Quite windy with showers in places then Monday night, probably too much wind for frost, just very locally it may ease enough towards dawn for ground frost to briefly form, generally no lower than 3c. With the low over Scandinavia by Tuesday we are in a colder showery NW flow, although 'colder' in Winter 2015/16 equates to average! Sunny intervals and some showers affecting WW in particular, these of hail at times, only a few reaching the sheltered Midlands where many have a dry, bright day. Maxima Tuesday 5 to 8c, mildest South Wales coast and South Midlands. Hail showers continuing to rattle across WW during Tuesday night, with snow possible for high ground above 200m or so, a mostly dry night Midlands with ground frost in places, lows close to 0c very locally given adequate shelter from the keen NW wind.

A bit of a ridge Wednesday should kill off most of the shower activity, so mostly dry with sunny spells, although there may be a residual shower streamer through parts of North Wales into the Midlands for a time in the morning. Highs again close to average at 5 to 8c, moderate to fresh WNW breezes. There may be a touch of frost for a time Wednesday evening into the early hours of Thursday with lighter winds and clear spells but this soon disappears from Wales as further cloud and fronts arrive from off the Atlantic with most places cloudy, milder and damp by dawn. Thursday then we are within a warm sector so a mild and mostly cloudy day with some rain or drizzle in places, although much of the Midlands perhaps getting little more than a dampening. Maxima in the 9 to 12c range with a fresh SW wind.

We may get a more active cold front come down Friday bringing a spell of wet and windy weather at some stage during the day, with most likely a mild morning turing colder and showery pm, highs 7 to 10c. Next weekend is decidedly unsetttled as a complex low system slowly crosses the UK with pressure getting to low levels of perhaps below 980mbar. Showers or longer spells of rain the order of the weekend, there could be rather heavy falls of rain with potential flooding for some areas, temperatures around average and it will be windy at times with the risk of gales. There is also a possibilty of significant hill snow above 250m at some stage next weekend which may need watching. Out to mid February it looks like continuing unsettled with around average temperatures but little frost or snow.

Sunday, 24 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 25th to Sunday 31st January 2016

Last weeks review: much drier, rather cold with frost and local fog; very mild from Thursday night with some rain

Sun 17th contrasting conditions: cold with a little rain, sleet or snow Midlands but a thaw of lying snow; temperatures back up close to average for WW and fairly mild over Pembrokeshire, and it was cloudy with some drizzle, especially evening (Milford Haven 9.2c, Church Lawford max 1.2c). 

Mon 18th drier and in places brighter than expected WW with temperatures only a little below average,  less cold for the Midlands and largely dry here too  (Valley 7.6c, Coleshill & Pershore 5.6c)

Tue 19th frosty over the Midlands, a ground frost very locally inland WW, but generally too much cloud here (Pershore -4.7c, Llanwnnen +0.8c). The exceptionally prolonged rainy spell came to end for WW, with the 24 hours to 0900 being the first such period to collect below 0.2mm since late November! Dry day, variable sunshine and temperatures. Well up to average on sunny Anglesey and in the Birmingham area (Valley 8.7c, Coleshill 6.8c) but most places on the cold side, while fog must have persisted all day in the Hereford area (max 0.1c).
Variable temperatures Tuesday

Wed 20th hard frost quite widespread with freezing fog in places, frost only slight NE Midlands (Shobdon -7.4c, Llanwnnen -6.9c). A sunny day in most places, virtually unbroken for many (Llanwnnen est 7.5 hrs, Valley 7.4, Shawbury 7.0 hrs), although again freezing fog persisted much of the day along some valleys of the West Midlands and Marches. On the cold side for most, Anglesey close to average, while some foggy areas remained sub zero all day (Mona 7.2c, Hereford max -2.2c).

Thu 21st frosty night, this lifted from WW as cloud and breeze picked up (Hereford -6.0c, Capel Curig -3.9c). Mostly cloudy with a little rain or drizzle. WW turned mild pm while it was rather cold Midlands until evening (Porthmadog 10.6c, Nottingham 5.0c).

Fri 22nd some rain and mild overnight (very mild WW), the East Midlands mostly dry. Rain cleared all areas by early afternoon with sunny intervals following, only a little rain parts of West Midlands (Capel Curig 36mm, Coleshill 2.0mm). Very mild but breezy (Pershore 13.2c, Trawsgoed 12.5c). 

Sat 23rd dry, rather mild night, although local ground frost Midlands. Mild or very mild, bright Midlands am, but some rain/ drizzle to most parts pm (Gogerddan 11.9c, Pershore College 10.5c).

The week ahead: very mild to mild and unsettled; heavy rain and gales in places, especially Tuesday/ Wednesday

Storm Jonas that has just given the historically deep snowfall up to 3 or 4 feet deep over the NE USA will arrive close to our shores during Tuesday and Wednesday, most definitely not bringing snow however, rather heavy rain and strong to gale force winds and further very mild weather. The week overall being mild or very mild with rain at times, cool ridging briefly from time to time may just about permit the odd slight frost temporarily.

Saturday night has been very mild within this warm sector, the temperatures rising above 10c and up to 11 to 13c widely this morning (at Gogerddan it was close to 13c overnight).  Occasional rain or drizzle through the night, some heavy orographic rain over Snowdonia, mostly cloudy as well as very mild Sunday with further mostly light rain or drizzle on and off, chiefly for WW. Much of the Midlands mostly dry today and it could brighten here and with the tropical airmass temperatures exceptionally mild reaching 14 possibly 15c where this happens. Generally though 12 or 13c the highs today, even this being 4 to 6c above the January average, a brisk SW wind. Very mild with the odd spot of drizzle tonight, no lower than 8c.

Very mild and rather cloudy Monday, a trough bringing some showery rain across especially afternoon, although not much expected for the Midlands, highs 11 to 14c (highest Midlands), fresh to strong SW wind. Any patchy rain clears evening and cooler, perhaps a ground frost locally overnight West Midlands under a bit of a ridge, but the next fronts are on the way bringing rain and strong winds to WW by around dawn. Tuesday's deep low that tracks close to northern Scotland was Jonas, but our situation to its south means we shall experience the very mild moist tropical air that this system contains. Perhaps early brightness East Midlands but a cloudy, windy day, and a  thoroughly wet one likely across much of Wales, with spells of rain affecting the Midlands too afternoon. Strong to gale force SW winds, we could be seeing flooding and wind daamge issues eventually during Tuesday. Somewhat acadamic maxima between 10 and 13c which are very mild again.

Rain and wind perhaps easing for a time during Tuesday night, but further waves on the fronts or even a secondary low are following to give further spells of wet and windy weather later in the night and well into Wednesday. Temperatures likely to remain in double figures throughout Tuesday night with Wednesday very mild again if often wet and windy, highs 11 to 14c, the East Midlands in particular could see some drier, possibly brighter intervals. Another windy day with gales possible in places. A clearance should be taking place come evening or at latest by midnight, but by then 100mm plus rainfall totals in 36 hours or so are likely to have fallen across parts of north and west Wales (around 200mm for Capel Curig?), no doubt with flooding in places. The cool ridge following brings a sharp drop in temps during Wednesday night with a frost in places as the wind drops.

Cooler and drier Thursday, sunny intervals, particularly Midlands, while WW will see a few showers. Tending to cloud over afternoon WW with more rain fronts looking set to arrive during the evening. Thursday highs 7 to 9c. It is then likely to turn milder and windy with rain at times overnight, temperatures perhaps rising into double figures celsius once more  after midnight. Friday and we may be experiencing another lingering front with more wet and windy weather in certain yet to ascertained regions, at least it will be mild! The weekend continues in similar vein, unsettled with further wind and rain at times and often mild. Few if any signs of any proper cold weather well into February, and so Winter 2015/16 looks quite likely to end up the mildest on record for the past 350 years.

Sunday, 17 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 18th to Sunday 24th January 2016

Last weeks review: often rather cold with some showers, wintry in places; some frost

Sunday 10th sunny intervals and showers but mostly dry Midlands, a colder day though still quite mild along the south coast of Wales (Pembrey 8.9c, Shawbury 7.2c, Llanwnnen max 5.0c). Nottingham managed a sunny day with 6 hours!

Mon 11th ground frost in places, also showery rain in places overnight. Sunny intervals for some lifted temperatures to around or slightly above average (especially SW Wales) while others were mostly cloudy and rather cold (especially Midlands, Milford Haven 9.2c, Shobdon 7.3c, Church Lawford max 4.5c). Only a few showers mostly these quite light.

Tue 12th some showers over WW night, mostly dry with ground frost over most of the Midlands, too much breeze and cloud Wales. Rather cloudy and showery day, hail in the showers, with longer spells of wet weather in some areas while a few places remained dry (Capel Curig 27mm, Milford Haven 0mm). A little sleet or snow reported parts of West Midlands.  Temps near average (Hereford 7.6c, Pembrey 7.5c).

Wed 13th widespread ground frost as showers cleared, local air frost (Llanwnnen -0.8c, Little Rissington +0.5c). Dry and quite sunny Midlands in the morning, plentiful showers and some longer spells of rain though for WW, wintry in places, these reaching most of the Midlands by evening. Average to rather cold temperatures (Pembrey 9.0c, Hereford 7.3c, Little Rissingon & Llanwnnen max 4.5c).

Thu 14th still some wintry showers overnight which gave a covering of snow in places including parts of the NW Midlands such as the Birmingham area and some hilly areas of Wales . A fairly widespread ground frost Midlands, most of WW too much of a breeze though (Little Rissington air min -0.6c, Capel Curig 0.7c). Snow cover visible on distant hills of north Ceredigion from above Llanwnnen. Sunny spells, rather cold or cold excepting Pembrokeshire which missed most of the showers (Scolton, Pembs 7.3c, Little Rissington max 3.5c). Further wintry showers by evening with further coverings.

Fri 15th  ground frost and ice widespread, air frost localised (Little Rissington min -1.0c). Wintry showers gave appreciable falls of snow to some higher ground of Wales, especially Snowdonia and Brecon Beacons (6-8 inches reported Western Beacons), even some slight slushy accumulations to lower levels in places ( at Llanwnnen we managed 1cm of slushy hail by morning).  A Cheshire Gap streamer of showers affected a strip of the NW and central Midlands as far as Birmingham where there was a covering as well; Swyddfynnon (Ceredigion) wettest place with 19.8mm from all the showers. Much of the Midlands and Pembrokeshire had a dry day though and the former a sunny one. Cold to rather cold everywhere (Valley 6.5c, Little Rissington 3.6c).

Sat 16th any showers died out to clear spells and frost (Tirabad -6.1c, Pershore -4.1c).  Rather cloudy for most, a little rain, sleet or snow in places (chiefly Midlands evening). Another rather cold or cold day although Pembrokeshire was in milder air (Milford Haven 8.0c, Shawbury, Salop max 2.9c). Less cold air spread to most of Wales overnight while the central and eastern Midlands saw a snowfall with a couple of inches reported from such places as Northampton and Leicester.

The week ahead: rather cold to midweek, some rain, sleet or snow dying out; then mild with rain and wind at times

Still we await that elusive dry day for West Wales, Llanwnnen has now had 55 consecutive rain days although at least the quantities have diminished! This has smashed the previous record of 35 days in 2014 but we are still hopeful that a dry day is imminent with Wednesday looking the best chance. The chilly weather hangs on especially over the Midlands through to the middle of the week, less cold over SW Wales though and mild everywhere across our regions come Thursday night/ Friday.

A lot of cloud still Sunday afternoon though the sun breaking through in places, still the odd spot of rain or sleet about. Cold over the Midlands no higher than 2 or 3c with a slow thaw of lying snow, milder across WW at 5 to 7c. Fronts edging in from the SW this evening bringing rain across much of Wales by midnight, with light rain, sleet or snow over the West Midlands too by morning where the air is still cold. A slow moving trough gives a cloudy raw Monday, rain at times, especially over Wales, still it could be falling as sleet or snow over the Midlands, but should be turning to rain except above 200m, while the far East Midlands beyond Leicester should remain dry.  Maxima generally quite cold at 3 to 5c, but more like 7c Pembrokeshire which is again in somewhat milder air.

The cold air wins out Monday night killing of the fronts over Wales, clear spells and frost over the Midlands once any light rain, sleet or snow dies out over the West Mildands. Still bits and pieces of rain over WW which could be turning to sleet or snow particularly above 200m and where there could be a covering by dawn Tuesday, down to -2c over the Midlands. Tuesday likely to be the coldest day of the week, mostly cloudy still with a chance of a little rain, sleet or snow across WW and more especially Pembrokeshire (rain) by this stage, the Midlands should be dry with sunny spells, and North Wales could also be dry with the sun breaking through too. Maxima just 2 to 4c with light winds, although Pembrokeshire could manage 5c.  Clear spells and frost widespread away from coastal WW Tuesday night, lowest temperatures -5c Marches, with freezing fog in places.

High pressure over the North Sea continues to block the advance of Atlantic fronts during Wednesday as well. A generally dry and rather cold day with sunny intervals, and for some quite a sunny day (provided any fog clears), highs again just 2 to 4c, but perhaps 5c Pembrokeshire.  We should then manage another frosty night before this cold spell ends. Rain fronts accompanied by a freshening SE wind should be moving into Wales during Thursday but this may be a slow process and the Midlands could get one last dry cold day. Maxima may not exceed 5c over the East Midlands during daylight Thursday while WW should be up to at least 8c come evening with rain and strong southerly winds. Rain and wind should then affect the Midlands as well at some stage Thursday night with snow looking unlikely as temperatures are on the rise.

Friday and the weekend we are more definitely in a mild SW flow as lows track to the NW of Scotland. Friday then mild and cloudy with rain at times, some could be heavy especially over the hills of Wales, maxima a big change could be in the 9 to 12c range! Rather unsettled with further rain at times over the weekend, wettest NW Wales closer to the fronts, with perhaps only small amounts for the Midlands where high pressure to our SE could be having an influence. Maxima in the 8 to 12c range with frost not expected and it will be windy at times. A return to sustained cold conditions looks most unlikely through to the start of February and with rainfall graphs showing only modest spikes we can hope for drier conditions in the west!

Sunday, 10 January 2016

Weather guide Monday 11th to Sunday 17th January 2016

Last weeks review: unsettled; mild to average temperatures

Nature has readjusted us kindly towards more typical Winter conditions following the perpetual October temperatures of December, this much more preferred a transition rather than being plunged immediately into snow and harsh frosts! Even though - January has started off  mild and wet in similar but much less extreme vein to December.

Sunday 3rd January mild, rain cleared followed by sunny intervals and some showers in the west (Milford Haven & Mumbles 11.3c, Pershore 9.6c).

Mon 4th less mild, cloudy, showery WW, some heavy and prolonged, only a few showers Midlands whre some stayed dry, although quite a crop made it into Glos via Bristol Channel. Maxima generally 8 to 10c away from the South Wales coast (Milford Haven 11.0c, Shobdon 9.1c). 

Tue 5th low pressure sat over Wales, however fewer showers generally than on Monday, although Mid and South Wales did see an area of rain or showers close to the low centre afternoon this moving into the SW Midlands evening with some heavy rain over Herefordshire. Maxima down closer to average at 7 to 9c (Pembrey 9.8c, Shobdon 9.1c) and few places glimpsed the sun! Clear periods gave ground frost to parts of inland Wales by midight. 

Wed 6th ground frost in places (air min Llanwnnen +0.3c). A foggy start with a few vestigial light showers but a mostly dry day with a few sunny intervals and average to mild temps (Milford Haven 10.6c, Hereford 9.6c). Rain to WW evening spreading east to the Midlands overnight.

Thu 7th showers in places, some heavy, at least with sunny intervals, after a mild night the afternoon was quite chilly (Pembrey 10.6c max before dawn, Pershore 9.0c). Frosty in many places evening although with further showers about still.

Fri 8th frost for many (air min Llanwnnen -2.1c, Little Rissington & Shawbury -0.8c). Heavy and prolonged showers affected NW Wales overnight into Friday morning (Capel Curig 29mm overnight) but a dry night for most of the Midlands. Sunny intervals and a few scattered showers, chiefly over Wales, rather mild temps once more (Pembrey 10.6c, Pershore College 10.2c).

Sat 9th ground frost in places overnight with an air frost registered in the Herefordshire countryside (Shobdon air min -0.3c), further rain affected WW  at times during the night. Further rain or showers for most places Saturday, with some heavy over Wales in particular, but on the whole quite small amounts for the Midlands. Again a fairly mild day, various places reaching around 10c (Wellesbourne 10.2c) which is 2 or 3c above their January averages while parts of WW received an inch of rain.

The week ahead: turning colder with frosty nights; showery (wintry from midweek) but drier by the weekend

We are about to get our first and belated cold snap of Winter, some of us could see some snow, probably not much though, but the good news (especially for us in Wales) is that the weather is becoming somewhat drier even with perhaps a dry day or 2 eventually before much longer. A dry spell is greatly needed as here at Llanwnnen we have now recorded 49 consecutive rain days having at least 0.2mm and no day has been completely dry since November 2nd! After just 9 days we have had 105mm rain here so in spite of some drier weather January is still going to end up wet in many areas. Uncertainties with the impending cold snap/ spell as to just how cold, how much snow and where, and how long it lasts, although there does seem a model consensus that this will not be a prolonged severe cold or snowy spell even if some places do see a covering of snow by the end of the week!

Further showers with hail affected WW during Saturday night, only a few making it across the Midlands. Sunny intervals and showers through Sunday as well, again some heavy and containing hail, relatively few affecting the Midlands where some manage a dry bright afternoon. Maxima fairly mild once more at 7 to 9c with a moderate SW breeze. Showers still largely restricted to Wales overnight also, clear intervals will permit a ground frost in places, it may dip to 0c very locally. A slack centred low pressure is over the UK Monday so another unsettled sunny intervals and showers day ahead but some areas escape with a dry day (chiefly but not exclusively Midland locations), maxima again above average at 7 to 9c, light or moderate breezes. Again, clearances and breeze permitting, some places getting a ground frost Monday night, perhaps most likely Midlands with WW seeing an increasing NW breeze.

A touch colder Tuesday as the low moves east and winds come from the NW, sunny intervals and further showers in places, hail could feature more strongly for WW and where showers could become quite frequent, they may also turn wintry later in the day over high ground. Highs 6 to 8c with a fresh cool NW wind. Showers should ease Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and local air frost, any showers above 200m could contain sleet or snow. Its getting a bit messy by Wednesday what with a weak ridge and shallow low on the scene. Perhaps tending to be a drier day, though still some wintry showers about, which may become more prevalent as the day progresses for WW, again with some hill snow. Highs 5 to 7c a little below average.

The models have been toying with the idea of a 'Channel Low' for Wednesday night into Thursday that may have brought with it a snow risk for the Midlands in particular, however for the time being that risk sems to have diminished with any low likely to track too far south across France (although still time for a change on this!). We should then have low pressure to our east come Thursday in some form or other dragging down rather cold air from the NNW bringing further showers, wintry in places, and there may be a longer spell of wet (potentially wintry) weather at some stage during the day, maxima rather cold at 4 to 6c, but any with any snow not likely to lie long on lower ground at least. Thursday night then turns frosty but with further wintry showers in places, which, as falling overnight, would have more chance of producing a covering come dawn.

It looks like being cold on Friday and probably over the weekend too with Friday again likely to feature a wintry mix of showers which give a covering in places, more especially over high ground. Friday night again should turn frosty, with quite a hard frost provided the wind eases, potential for -6c over Mid Wales and the Marches. Reasonable signs of more of a high pressure influence come the weekend, so probably generally dry with some sunshine, although we may still be seeing some wintry showers in places. The latest output from the ECM model brings a lovely cold high over the UK next weekend which would then be dry, bright, cold and frosty for a change (that is where freezing fog does not persist)! The demise of the cold weather should then take place the following week with mild westerlies likely to return for late January.