Sunday, 20 December 2015

Weather guide Monday 21st December to New Years Day 2016

Last weeks review: became exceptionally mild; dull and unsettled with rain at times, mostly Wales

Dull damp last Sunday, quite chilly over the Midlands until evening, but a mild day over most of WW (Milford Haven & Pembrey 11.8c, Wellesbourne 8.2c, Nottingham max 5.0c). Surprisingly some clear intervals permitted a ground frost at Trawsgoed Sunday night (air min 2.4c), but for most a mild night (Milford Haven 9.9c, Little Rissington 7.0c). Mostly cloudy and damp with a little rain and drizzle Monday, mild with quite light winds (Milford Haven 12.1c, Shawbury 9.9c).  Very mild Monday night with further light rain or drizzle in places (Milford Haven min 11.0c, Pershore 8.9c). A rain band affected all areas fror a time Tuesday pm this introducing exceptionally mild air for Winter with temperaures peaking during the evening (Gogerddan 14.3c, Pershore 13.1c) with the Midlands seeing temperatures rise further into the early hours of Wednesday so Pershore was 14c at midnight! Incredibly we then, for the most part, remained in this exceptionally mild air right through to Saturday night (bearing in mind mid December average maxima are 7 to 9c) and this spell saw some of the mildest December weather on record in the UK.

Further rain or drizzle in many places during Tuesday night, some heavy over Wales (Capel Curig 34.6mm in 24 hrs to 0600) although totals were small once more for most of the Midlands (Coleshill 2.0mm). Exceptionally mild Wednesday even though with the temperature little or no higher than during the previous night, mostly cloudy and murky with occasional drizzle, chiefly over WW (Hereford 15.4c, Gogerddan 14.6c) although some areas did brighten, particularly the Midlands (Wellesbourne 1.9 hrs sun). Nowhere below 9c Wednesday night and for most it remained above 11c (min Trawsgoed 12.8c, Shobdon 9.5c), and in some places such as Llanwnnen (min 11.8c) it was the mildest December night on record. Rain or drizzle in many places for a time Thursday as a cold front came through, the 'cold' being very relative as even behind this the air was still very mild (Pershore 15.1c, Trawsgoed 14.5c). Much of the Midlands saw very little rain once more (Shawbury 0.4mm) and a few of us glimpsed the sun!

Very mild Thursday night (and still exceptionally so in places Pembrey 12.0c, Church Lawford & Hereford 8.8c), with some rain or drizzle, chiefly over the hills of Wales. Very mild with a lot of cloud Friday, although parts of the Midlands had a bright start, a little rain or drizzle in places, and wet at times for Snowdonia (Shawbury 13.3c, Trawsgoed 13.2c). Even milder air arrived across the whole UK Friday night with record breaking minima as temperatures remarkably climbed substantially through the night! Here at Llanwnnen it peaked at 13.9c after midnight, this being the highest recorded here so late in the year. Even more remarkable temperatures elsewhere as Gogerddan reached 15.4c by 0200 and with Pershore the warmest spot up to 15.9c by dawn Saturday! Meanwhile the dawn temperature reading on Saturday at Bablake, Coventry was 14.9c which already made it the mildest December day in the city since 1931. Wales had rain and strong winds Friday night, with a little drizzle for the Midlands.

Saturday was then wet and windy for much of Wales, rain at times for the West Midlands too while the East Midlands saw little if any. Much of WW had well over an inch during Saturday, the wettest place being Capel Curig with 68mm midnight to midnight, at Llanwnnen there was 42mm in the same 24 hour period making it the wettest day of the year (also Whitechurch 55mm 2100 -2100) - in total contrast only a trace of rain was collected in the Long Lawford gauge! Needless to say an exceptionally mild day, Pershore not gettting higher than its dawn level was mildest (daytime max 15.7c) with everywhere seeing highs above 13c, Trawsgoed warmest for WW by day reaching 14.9c.

The rest of the year: generally unsettled with rain at times and mostly mild; dry interludes lasting longest East Midlands

With no sign whatsoever of a cold snap December 2015 is virtually assured of entering the record books as the mildest ever across England and Wales. It may though end up one of the dullest on record too! Continuing unsettled as well for the rest of the year with further rain at times although we could get the odd dry day in the mix perhaps more especially in the approach to the New Year and over the Midlands. Huge contrasts in fortunes with the rain during the past week, WW having had more than its fair share again, 72mm the weeks total at Llanwnnen for example, this though not so much compared to almost 200mm at Capel Curig, but small amounts over most of the Midlands, Long Lawford with just 5.0mm has had a virtually dry week!

Saturday night was really mild again, many places not dropping below 9c although for Sunday we are in distinctly less mild and fresher air even though temperatures are still well above average. Nice to be seeing sunny intervals on Sunday, quite a rash of showers (some containing hail) over Wales with only a few surviving far into the Midlands, max this afternoon 10 to 12c and a fresh SW wind. Showers for parts of WW lasting well into the night but dry for the Midlands and a much cooler night than of late (though far from cold) as it dips to 4 to 6c inland. A dry start in most places Monday but rain soon arrives across WW this spreading to the Midlands afternoon, heavy at times, especially Wales, and accompanied by a strong to gale force SW wind. Very mild afternoon at 11 to 13c.The rain should clear by teatime for a few hours at least, this with less mild temperatures during the evening down to 6 or 7c.

Yet more fronts and their rain arrive by midnight Monday with a wet windy night for much of Wales and the North Midlands, probably only light rain over the South Midlands, and temperatures back up into double figures celsius. Cloudy with spells of rain much of Tuesday, some heavy falls again over Wales, probably very little until quite late in the day for the East Midlands though. Very mild indeed once more at 12 to 14c, the odd 15c for the Midlands which we have been accustomed too! The rain then clearing east during Tuesday evening but leaving a drape of showers for WW. Sunny intervals and a few showers Wednesday and less wind, maxima cooler and fresher at 8 to 10c. A deep low then passes close to NW Scotland Wednesday night/ Thursday bringing strong to gale force winds by Wednesday evening. Heavy rain is then possible over much of WW overnight and may extend to the Midlands by morning.

Christmas Eve sees rain and wind for a time then, precise timings impossible but it does look like clearing Wales to showers by midday, but may linger well into the afternoon over the East Midlands. Again mild air associated with this frontal system (highs around 10c) but cooler and fresher air eventually as it turns more showery. Perhaps a bit of a ridge overnight killing off the Welsh showers, with clearing skies and easing winds that could just about give a ground frost in places by dawn on the Big Day! We are actually in the coolest air of the week by this stage with temperatures down closer to average into Christmas Day so at least it may be feeling somewhat more Seasonal! Dry with sunny intervals for a time we can hope for then with temperaures in the afternoon between 7 and 9c. However the model scenarios are becoming more varied by this stage and there is a fair chance that further fronts move in during the day from the SW turning it mild again with rain in places, although perhaps this not until evening at least for the Midlands? By Christmas night it is looking very mild indeed though with some rain or drizzle about and temperatures into double figures after midnight.

Boxing Day (Saturday) a long way off but the majority of model output go for mild even very mild conditions again, although a few do keep temperatures nearer average. Pressure likely to be on the rise next weekend with high pressure over the near Continent so it should be mostly dry if rather overcast, however possibly with occasional drizzle coming into WW. Next Sunday a bit of a guessing game, but very mild southerlies are favoured so it could be quite pleasant if breezy, provided the drizzle holds off. Maxima next weekend expected to be in the 10 to 13c range.

Largely fantastical conjecture in the lead up to New Year but reasonably high pressure seems indicated in the approach to New Year as an anticyclone to our east attempts to block the progression of Atlantic fronts. For Monday 28th to New Years Day (Friday) the Midlands may continue to see only quite small amounts of rain and with some of these days being mostly dry if rather cloudy, for WW however fronts are likely affect the weather from time to time with some spells of rain, and should the fronts get stuck, as is likely given this scenario, then some days could turn out wet here. We are likely to be seeing out 2015 with a predominance of mild weather with frost very limited or absent, just hints we may get down to more average levels come NYD.

Sunday, 13 December 2015

Weather guide Monday 14th to Sunday 20th december 2015

Last weeks review: changeable and often mild; excessive rainfall Snowdonia

First regards the Cumbrian rain event of last weekend, it has been confirmed by the Met Office that a new UK record amount was recorded with 341.4mm falling at Honister in the Lake District in the 24 hour period to 1830 on Saturday 5th December. This event was caused by an 'atmospheric river' of extremely moist upper air that constantly fed off the Atlantic only to be released over the hills and rather than being a direct consequence of 'Storm Desmond' as widely portrayed.

Last Sunday was mostly overcast again with a little rain or drizzle in places, but many stayed dry, another very mild day (Hereford 15.0c, Trawsgoed 13.3c). Some clear intervals permitted the temperature to drop to 3.3c at Capel Curig Sunday teatime but a very mild night in most places, no lower than 11c on the south coast of Wales, there was a little rain in places. Exceptionally mild with sunny spells in many places on Monday, but a fresh to strong southerly. Warmest Gogerddan near Aberystwyth max 16.4c (UK date record) while it was the mildest December day in the 10 year record at Llanwnnen with a high of 13.9c (beating 13.6c in 2007). The mildest place in the Midlands was Newport, Salop 15.3c with Coventry (max 13.7c) having its mildest December day for 21 years. WW then had a wet evening, the front only giving a little rain for the Midlands overnight, another very mild night (min Milford Haven 11.7c).

Sunny intervals and blustery showers Tuesday, mostly over Wales where some were heavy with hail, mild but it cooled down afternoon (Wellesbourne 12.9c, Mumbles 12.0c). Clear with a touch of frost in places Tuesday night (Llanwnnen -0.2c, Shobdon +0.8c) but this had lifted well before dawn over WW as the breeze picked up. Mild Wednesday, rather cloudy for WW but decent sunny spells for the Midlands and a dry day by and large and it was windy with severe gales in exposed places across Wales (Milford Haven & Pembrey 12.2c, Shawbury 11.7c). Very mild again Wednesday night as most places stayed above 8c (Pembrey min 11.8c), wet for Mid and North Wales but the rain did not reach South Wales and the Midlands until morning.  Most of the rain cleared WW during the morning (Capel Curig 82mm in 24 hours to midday). Dull with mostly light rain on and off for the Midlands much of Thursday afternoon and it turned cooler for most places (Pembrey 12.2c, Pershore 11.0c).

Mild with a little rain Thursday night, although mostly dry Midlands (Shawbury 3.6c, Capel Curig 5.3c). Rain in places Friday morning, chiefly over Mid & South Wales, then a dry, bright afternoon for many but cooler than of late (Milford Haven 10.0c, Hereford 9.1c). Rather a widespread ground frost Friday night (air min Hereford & Llanwnnen 0.5c). Rain and strong winds then Saturday, a lot of rain much of WW, the rain more intermittent and generally light most of the Midlands. Very mild with many places getting above 12c eventually (Hereford 14.0c, Trawsgoed 13.2c) and with 92mm rain at Capel Curig falling in 12 hours on Saturday. Further mostly light rain fell on and off during Saturday night but with North Wales mostly dry at this stage.

The coming week: mild/ very mild and unsettled, further rain and wind at times, especially Wales

December is already shaping up to be another very wet month across Wales, none more so than at Capel Curig which has had almost 500mm (20 inches) in the first 13 days! In contrast much more modest totals over the Midlands with less than one inch (21mm) at Long Lawford so far. It has though been just about the mildest start to a December on record with mean temperatures more akin to late April. More very mild and at times wet weather in the coming week too so the buds and Daffodils will continue to be tricked into thinking its Spring! Another overcast day today (Sunday) but most of the main rain is clearing away north this afternoon with just a little residual drizzle left behind. Mild air once more behind this warm front with highs eventually this afternoon 8 to 11c for most, although a rather cold 6c max perhaps for Nottingham and light winds. A mild night with drizzle in places no lower than 5c.

Low pressure to the SW of Ireland Monday throws up a cold front pm with quite a wet afternoon across Wales, the rain reaching most of the Midlands by evening. Highs again 8 to 11c with quite a fresh southerly for WW. The main rain clears by midnight just with bits and pieces behind overnight and still mild. Tuesday morning could be mainly dry bar the odd spit, but active fronts arrive from the SW afternoon which will turn out wet and rather windy in many places. Very mild by the evening too as temperatures rise reaching 12 to 14c. Tuesday night sees further rain at times and winds could be strong to gale force but it stays exceptionally mild at above 10 or 11c all night.

The worst of the rain and strong winds should be clearing Wednesday morning but a lot of cloud still, very mild with bits and pieces of rain and drizzle through the day, another mucky mild day so typical of this December! Highs Wednesday though exceptionally mild widely at 13 to 15c. Exceptionally mild Wednesday night some spots may not get below 13c with nowhere lower than 10c, light rain and drizzle in places and rather windy. Thursday will see an active cold front coming through, although this may be a slow process and Wales in particular could get a thoroughly wet and windy day (potential for large rainfall amounts in places here), the rain band eventually crossing the Midlands as well. Another really mild day at 12 to 15c (highest Midlands). The cold front should have cleared though by midnight leaving just a few showers.

Timings impossible to rely on come the end of the week but Friday perhaps drier and calmer ahead of yet another low and it fronts that are inevitably set to bring their rain and strong winds - albeit perhaps not until after dark? Even if mostly dry, Friday sees a lot of cloud once more with any brightness at a premium as has been the case much of this dull December. Certainly another mild day maxima at least 10c. Next weekend looking disturbed with further spells of rain and strong winds, with the potential that fronts may stick over Wales giving the risk of further unwelcome deluges and flooding here. Mild or very mild still, highs 10 to 14c, with Saturday most likely to see the highest readings as during Sunday it may well cool down somewhat. Disturbed, often windy weather is likely to continue through to Christmas although with a less mild/ colder theme in which hill snow may be featuring from time to time though flooding and gale damage are likely to be the chief concerns.

Sunday, 6 December 2015

Weather guide Monday 7th to Sunday 13th December 2015

Last weeks review: very mild, unsettled and often windy

Last Sunday was mild (Pembrey 13.2c, Pershore 13.1c) and very windy, gusts above 80mph for some exposed parts of Wales (Capel Curig gust 93mph). There was also rain at times, heavy in places afternoon, although it was patchy and some places had only a little (Aberdaron 0.4mm). Dull, wet and windy for Wales throughout much of Monday with some rain and drizzle on and off for the Midlands also. Large totals across Wales with many places a few miles inland getting over an inch (25mm) - highest for WW being Capel Curig 53.8mm by midnight (also Lake Vyrnwy, Powys 58mm). It was though a very mild end to a very mild November (Pershore 14.8c, Milford Haven 12.9c).

Very mild over Mid and South Wales Monday night (min Pembrey 12.1c) with less mild air over other areas (min Nottingham 4.0c), drizzle in many places but still quite wet for North Wales. Some most welcome sunny spells for the Midlands on Tuesday and where it was dry. Mostly cloudy still for WW however with rain or drizzle in places which tended to die out afternoon, very mild in all areas (Pershore College 14.9c, Trawsgoed 13.3c) in stark contrast to northern Scotland where it snowed in places on Monday and Tuesday! Very mild again Wednesday, rain for WW afternoon but the Midlands stayed largely dry with a few sunny intervals with a little rain here by evening (Hereford 14.2c, Milford Haven & Pembrey 12.8c).

Mild with some rain in many places during Wednesday night, very mild indeed over much of the Midlands above 10c all night (min Pershore 11.7c, Mona 5.0c). Another very mild day Thursday, heavy rain and strong to gale force winds for WW with rain reaching most of the Midlands too later (Gogerddan 13.9c, Pershore 13.8c). Over an inch of rain for parts of Wales during Thursday (Capel Curig 42.2mm). Cooler Thursday night when it became largely dry (Llanwnnen 2.4c). Sunny intervals over the Midlands but a lot of cloud yet again for WW Friday, only a few showers and mild or very mild (Hereford 13.1c, Milford Haven 12.8c). Strong winds Friday pm with gales for exposed places.

Friday night saw strong to gale force winds in many areas (Capel Curig gusts to 89mph), wet for NW Wales and it was very mild staying above 10c for many (Pembrey min 12.1c, Hereford 11.3c) bearing in mind average maxima in early December are 8 or 9c. Named storm Desmond brought severe gales across WW during Saturday and a lot rain for the NW. Little if any rain for the rest of Wales and it was mostly dry for the Midlands but cloudy. A phenomenal amount of rain fell over Snowdonia during Saturday with 131mm at Capel Curig in the 24 hours to midnight, this though much less than what fell over Cumbria (Shap 201mm/ 8 inches) and it is likely that parts of the Lake District exceeded 350mm rain in 36 hours! Mild everywhere if not a great deal higher than the previous night (Shawbury 12.6, Pembrey & Trawsgoed 12.4c).

November review: very dull, very mild and unsettled; rather wet in most places, very wet parts of Wales

Record breaking warmth across West Wales on the first 2 days as Trawsgoed reached 22.4c (72f) with unbroken sunshine - unprecedented for November, but for much of East Wales and the Midlands it was foggy and quite cool especially 2nd. The rest of the month then unsettled and very dull. It was one of the mildest Novembers on record with temperatures 2 or 3c above average. Snowdonia was exceptionally wet as moist SW winds were frequently forced to deposit their contents on the massiff. There was data loss at Capel Curig during one wet spell over a couple of days and so the estimated total quoted would be at least 40mm higher and so the monthly total likely approached 750mm (almost 30 inches) - more than the average for a whole year for places such as Coventry in the Midlands!

Some November rainfall totals:

Capel Curig >690mm  (>240%)
Trawsgoed c. 210mm 
Llanwnnen 238.9 (160%)
Aberporth c. 150mm 
Pembrey Sands c. 170mm
Llanelli 165.6mm

Nottingham c. 80mm
Coleshill c. 60mm
Coventry 78.4mm 125%
Church Lawford 73.2mm 112%
Long Lawford 64.9mm 105%
Hereford 74.4mm 116%
Pershore 69.8mm 123%
Cirencester  PWS 94mm 

Some November sunshine totals:

Valley 35.2 hrs
Llanwnnen est 38 hrs (70%) - 16 hours of which first 2 days
Aberporth 32.7
Coventry, Bablake School 37.8 hrs = dullest Nov since 1884 (36.3)
Shobdon 28.4 

Autumn 2015: rather average overall

Temperatures close to or a little above average overall in spite of the very mild November; likewise rainfall in many places was quite close to average in spite of a wet November in most places, Hereford though had a dry Autumn.

Some Autumn rainfall totals:

Trawsgoed c. 370mm (96%)
Llanwnnen 403.9mm (103%)

Long Lawford 161.6mm (96%)
Church Lawford c. 188mm (103%)
Coventry, Bablake 201.6mm (106%)
Hereford c. 142mm (74%)

and sunshine:

Llanwnnen est 303 hrs (112%)
Coventry 280.4 hrs (91%)

The week ahead: changeable with rain at times (chiefly WW) and some drier brighter days; often mild but perhaps colder Friday/ Saturday

November and the start of December has been very mild and very dull, less than 2 hours sun in the past fortnight here at Llanwnnen. Capel Curig has has 263mm rain in the first 5 days of this month and Long Lawford just 8.4mm such are the variety of conditions these Isles provide us with! Better prospects of getting a brighter day or two in the coming week as things dry out somewhat over Wales. Sunday night saw some further rain over WW with the Midlands again staying largely dry, it was another very mild December night (Pembrey min 12.1c). Still residual bits and pieces of rain in places lasting into Sunday afternoon but for many a dry afternoon in prospect with a few sunny intervals, maxima at 12 to 15c but cooling across North and Mid Wales afternoon, and much less wind. The next weather front associated with a mid Atlantic low will bring further spells of rain across Wales later this evening, but should only be light and patchy over the Midlands tonight, it could drop down to 5c in the north of our regions this evening but will be back into double figures celsius by dawn.

We are in yet another warm sector during Monday so very mild with a lot of cloud and a little rain or drizzle, chiefly for Wales, while the Midlands may see a few chinks of brightness. Maxima again 12 to 15c and well above the December average, there will be a freshening SSW wind but not gales on Monday. The cold front then brings a more general band of rain across all parts during Monday evening and night, some of this heavy and a mild night no lower than 6c even behind the cold front, a windy night too. Tuesday and its hopeful of a bright, breezy showery day, so most places getting a couple of hours sunshine at last! Hardly any showers making it to the Midlands, max here 12c in the morning, while WW reaches 8 to 10c in somewhat cooler air.

Clear spells Tuesday night could give a ground frost in places under a ridge, close to 0c then locally although freshening winds should have lifted this by dawn as the next fronts arrive. Although there will be quite an intense high over France during Wednesday weak fronts will bring plenty of cloud again, although after sunny intervals for a time over the Midlands. Light rain and drizzle quite likely to develop over WW as we go through the day, mild at 10 or 11c but the SW wind increases strong to gale by evening. More active fronts seem likely to be strung out overnight Wednesday close to WW where it may well be wet in places, and with gales in exposed areas, but mostly dry Midlands.

The slow- moving strung out front scenario may last well into Thursday, so this is another day when Snowdonia in particular could get an awful lot of rain, wet in other parts as well but this cannot be ascertained at this stage, and it may not pan out this way as the fronts could clear though more quickly Thursday. It should be another mild day but may cool down later if the cold front does manage to clear through. Uncertainty expands come the end of the week but it may end up rather colder but remain changeable, although some options do keep it generally on the mild side still. Friday into Saturday then again hopeful of sunny intervals and scattered showers type conditions with temperatures down to around average (max 7 to 9c). However indications are that it could turn wet again eventually next weekend as a low trundles our way from the SW with at this stage Saturday night into Sunday seeming the more likely timespan for this.