Sunday, 8 November 2015

Weather guide Sunday 8th to Saturday 14th November

Last weeks review: Record breaking warmth West Wales at first but foggy Midlands; then mild or very mild with some rain at times

Very mild last Saturday for Halloween, most of us seeing some sunny spells (Pershore 17.7c, Trawsgoed 17.3c). Fog in many places on Saturday night which lingered in some areas. A record breaking day ensued over Ceredigion and some other parts of WW where Trawsgoed had an incredible maximum of 22.4c - the warmest November temperature recorded in November in the UK. This beat the previous November record of 21.7c recorded at Prestatyn, North Wales way back in 1946. Many parts of WW topped 19c Sunday: Gogerddan 21.5c, Whitechurch 21.0c, Swyddfynnon 20.9c and Llanwnnen 19.9c! Very mild indeed elsewhere if the sun came out as many places topped 16c, however for others nearby the fog stuck much of the day, particularly along the river valleys of the SW Midlands. Driving from Coventry back to Wales on Sunday afternoon the warm sunshine was replaced by mist and fog along the Worcestershire M5 and M50 and west into the Brecon Beacons restricting temperatures to just 12 or 13c here (Midlands: Coleshill 17.8c, Hereford max 11.9c).

New Nov high temp record!

Clear spells Sunday night with fog widespread, this dense over parts of the Midlands on Monday morning. The fog then persisted over most of the Midlands and mid Wales for much of Monday, while WW saw Summer-like temperatures and sunshine for the second day.. in November! Remarkable temperature contrasts, Trawsgoed again 'hotspot' at 22.3c, claiming the record for the warmest ever UK temperature so late in the year! Gogerddan and Swyddfynnon both topped 21c with Llanwnnen not far behind on 19.2c, while Capel Curig in Snowdonia reached 18.9c and Aberporth on the coast 18.4c on a glorious late Autumn Monday across WW. Just 30 miles or so from Ceredigion Sennybridge only managed max 8.8c in the fog, much of the Midlands was foggy and cool as well at 8 to 10c max (Nottingham 8.2c), excepting for hills above the fog layer (Pennerley, Shropshire 16.8c).

Remarkable contrasts Monday Nov 2nd

Clear skies gave a ground frost over parts of WW Monday night (Llanwnnen air min 1.2c) while the fog/ cloud kept tempteratures up only slightly below their daytime levels across the Midlands (Nottingham min 7.2c). Some sun for WW for a time, but a lot of cloud Tuesday with occasional rain spreading north afternoon into the evening, temperatures down closer to average over WW but UP closer to average for the Midlands (Porthmadog 13.8c, Pershore 11.0c, Nottingham max 9.2c). Most of the rain died out during Tuesday night although still affecting the East Midlands by morning and a mild night (most staying above 8c). Bits and pieces of light rain and drizzle Wednesday but a generally dry day if rather cloudy and mild (Trawsgoed 15.7c, Hereford 15.2c).

Very mild across South Wales Wednesday night (Mumbles min 12.7c) then a mostly cloudy day with rain spreading east through the day, some quite heavy over WW although most of it cleared readily afternoon. Another mild if breezy and overcast day (Gogerddan 15.7c, Pershore 15.4c). Very mild air indeed returned for the end of the week as deep fetch SW winds arrived. Thursday night and most places remained above 11c which is where it should be on a November afternoon (Pembrey & Pershore min 12.6c). Rain for WW for a time Friday, with intermittent light rain also affecting the Midlands, a few brighter intervals made it very mild indeed in places (Hereford 17.6c) although all areas were very mild (Trawsgoed 16.3c, Capel Curig 14.3c).

Very mild Friday night and it became wet and windy over WW and much of the Midlands before dawn. Rain cleared WW Saturday morning after totalling an inch in places, with almost 2 inches for parts of Snowdonia (Capel Curig 46mm 24 hours to 1200) to a few showers, the Midlands too dried out afternoon with some sunny intervals. Very mild especially over the Midlands (Pershore 17.4c, Trawsgoed 15.7c).

October 2015 review: Most places  rather dry with temperatures near average

Most places had a dry October, a few very dry, while the odd spot did just about exceed average. Temperatures a touch above average in most places with sunshine below average over the Midlands while parts of WW were fairly sunny (an estimated 107 hours 117% here at Llanwnnen).

Some rainfall totalls:

Valley 58.2mm 58%
Trawsgoed 89.0mm 61%
Llanwnnen 71.1mm 50%
Aberporth 75.2mm 67%
Mumbles 58.4mm 47%

Nottingham 75.2mm 106%
Coleshill 56.4mm 77%
Coventry 63.8mm 94%
Church Lawford c. 59mm 105%
Long Lawford 47.8mm 87%
Hereford 35.8mm 46%
Little Rissington 58.0mm 70%

The week ahead: Often very mild and unsettled with spells of rain and wind; cooler Friday into Saturday

Clear spells enough to permit a touch of ground frost over Herefordshire on Saturday night (Shobdon air min 2.2c), in contrast over South Wales it was cloudy and mild (Milford Haven min 11.9c). Some rain in many places late in the night into this Sunday morning accompanied by strengthening southerly winds. More wet and windy weather this afternoon especially over WW as a low tracks close to NW Scotland, some heavy rain in places with winds gusting to gale force especially for exposed parts of Wales. Much of the Midlands may well miss the worst of the rain and stay largely dry until later afternoon or this evening. Very mild again today with highs between 14 and 16c.

The cold front should clear the rain east during the evening. So a dry calmer interlude for Sunday night. Very mild strong deep fetch WSW winds arrive during Monday bringing further fronts which may get strung out across central and northern UK. Worst of the rain and wind over north and west Wales and perhaps the north Midlands, some large totals adding up over the hills especially Snowdonia, while wind gusts could top 60mph in exposed places. Maxima Monday 13 to 16c, highest over the South Midlands where the odd bright chink may occur. Still some rain and drizzle in places Monday night which is rather windy but exceptionally mild, many places not falling lower than 13 or 14c!

Even more fronts for Tuesday so further spells of rain, some heavy over WW, while the Midlands should see some drier brighter intervals. Very mild again as temperatures widely reach 14 to 16c, even 17c possible for parts of the Midlands. With the slow moving fronts and orographic enhancement some very large rainfall totals may well have totted up come midweek over high ground, Capel Curig for example could get over 150mm (6 inches) in the coming 72 hours ahead to Wednesday afternoon. Even come Wednesday rain fronts and even a  wave depression could still be affecting southern UK and increasing these totals! In contrast much of the Midlands may see relatively small amounts of rain during this period. Mild once more Wednesday and it should be less windy.

Thursday and we may be in less mild air but should see a brighter drier interlude with only a few showers and maxima 11 to 14c. However the next Atlantic low and its rain fronts look set to move across Wales and western England later in the day. The transition to cooler weather continues at the end of the week, Friday looks unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, hail in places, and a fresh to strong west to NW wind, highs only 8 to 11c at this stage, rather below average for mid November, although Snowdonia with plentiful showers may only reach a cool 7c. A transient ridge giving a drier spell by next Friday night (could permit slight frost) into Saturday but further rain and wind looks set to arrive later in the weekend.

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