Sunday, 22 November 2015

Weather guide Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th November 2015

Last weeks review: Mild and cloudy with rain at times; cold snap this weekend gave snow in places

Very mild indeed last Sunday, mostly overcast with a little rain or drizzle in places (Hereford 16.8c, Trawsgoed 15.3c). Rain crossed Wales during the evening but typically fizzled to almost nothing over the Midlands after midnight (Capel Curig 21mm overnight, Long Lawford a trace of rain for example). Strong to gale force winds especially for exposed parts of NW Wales Sunday night (Capel Curig gusts to 88mph). Brightness for a time Monday which was a less mild day (Pershore 12.8c, Mumbles & Pembrey 12.3c), rain spread to all areas late afternoon and evening, some of it heavy.

Some rain at times Tuesday which became very mild and very windy (Pershore 16.1c, Trawsgoed 15.0c).  The strongest winds were during the evening with severe gales in exposed places which experienced gusts over 70mph (Aberdaron 85mph) but with sustained gales also affecting parts of the Midlands (Shawbury max gust 66mph). Named 'Storm Barney' did then cause some damage and disruption to power supplies but this was not widespread. Wednesday and further rain or showers at times accompanied by strong winds but again a mild or very mild day (Hereford 14.3c, Mumbles 14.1c). Some torrential downpours about on Wednesday afternoon, the rain briefly falling at a rate of 129mm an hour here at Llanwnnen, while there was an 8mm in one hour downpour at Church Lawford, whereas other places saw very little rain (Shawbury, Salop 1.0mm day total).

Further rain for a time on Thursday for many places but much of it died out through the afternoon with only very small amounts for most of the Midlands in any case.  Cooler with a lot of cloud yet again, maxima in many places being during the previous night or early morning (Mumbles 12.4c, Pershore 11.4c). Cooler than for some time Thursday night although temperartures were above average minima in most places (Pembrey min 8.3c, Shawbury 3.1c). At last some sunny intervals Friday and just a few passing showers, colder but temperatures still close to the mid to late November average (Mumbles 10.2c, Hereford 9.7c) even though it felt colder with the wind! Showers turned wintry especially over hills during Friday evening.

Wintry showers on Friday night, with more prolonged outbreaks in places giving temporary coverings of snow in parts even to low levels. Lying snow if only a cm or 2 affected such places as Coventry, Solihull, the Brecon Beacons and Cotswolds, with up to 5cm reported in places above 1000 feet. Frost occurred where cloud breaks and wind permitted (Sennybridge min -0.8c). Saturday was a cold day for November, mostly dry and sunny across the Midlands but further wintry showers affected West Wales, we had a spell of wet snow here at Llanwnnen mid afternoon depositing a layer of slush on the lawn (Milford Haven 7.2c, Hereford 5.4c, Little Rissington max 3.1c).  The first widespread air frost of the month Saturday night (Church Lawford -2.2c)

The week ahead: unsettled, rain or showers and strong winds at times; fluctuating temperatures

As befits the month November is turning out rather wet and in spite of our cold snap will still end up a very mild month. More unsettled weather to come for the remainder of the month, showers or longer spells of rain and a with a little snow possible during colder incursions over hills as temperatures fluctuate. Sunday afternoon is bright and mostly dry apart from a drape of showers still over parts of West Wales that are tending to die down. Rather cold this afternoon, highs 6 to 8c but at least the winds are light. With a ridge over us tonight it will be mostly clear and frosty with fog in places, temperatures widely down to -2c inland and locally -4c.

Rather cold again Monday, dry and bright with sunny intervals for the Midlands but WW clouds over with a band of rain moving down from the NW later in the day, highs 6 to 8c, perhaps 9c Pembrokeshire. The rain should reach the Midlands during the late evening too. Spells of rain then for Monday night, some heavy, fresh to strong winds accompanying the rain, but temperatures hold up. Tuesday is bright and quite cool, fresh NW winds bringing showers of rain and hail and which could be wintry for highest ground, maxima 7 to 9c. A frontal feature could bring more prolonged spells of rain across Wales in particular during Tuesday evening into the night.

The NW flow keeps up for Wednesday bringing further showers but also with sunny intervals, most of the showers should be over Wales where they form streamers, with the Midlands tending to stay mostly dry and bright, highs again 7 to 9c, possibly 10c Pembrokeshire. A ridge then topples down across Wales and England Wednesday night into Thursday killing off most of the showers so it should become a largely dry night with ground frost possible for the Midlands. Milder westerlies arrive during Thursday, some sunny intervals for the Midlands but it becomes mostly cloudy with rain or drizzle in places, mostly over Wales, highs 9 to 11c and breezy. Mild and breezy with rain in places Thursday night no lower than 7c.

Friday looks like seeing active fronts crossing the UK bringing periods of rain, heavy at times accompanied by strong to gale force winds. There will be a transient warm sector raising temperatures to a mild 11 or 12c at some stage on Friday (probably morning) but the cold front sweeping through (probably afternoon) will bring a marked cool down. Showers, wintry over hills, arriving by Friday evening, especially for WW where hail may well be a feature. Next weekend looks like continuing unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain and perhaps wintriness for high ground at times as the air looks rather cold especially for Saturday, it will often be windy as well with gale risks. Frost though is unlikely due to all the cloud, wind and precipitation.

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