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Saturday, 31 October 2015

Weather guide Sunday 1st to Saturday 7th November 2015

Last weeks review: Mild and rather unsettled with some rain at times

After completing this guide last Sunday morning I regretted having taken the charts showing a high pressure ridge over England and Wales at face value as it became ominously cloudy no sooner my task was finished so I checked the webcams to see that much of West Wales was not fine and sunny as I had stated and that in fact some rogue showers were cropping up on the radar. Sometimes it is best to just look out of the window especially as a light shower arrived here at Llanwnnen just before midday - although at least the prognosis proved more reliable for the sunnier Midlands! Temperatures close to average on Sunday (Milford Haven 14.2c, Hereford 12.4c).

Just about a ground frost for the Midlands on Sunday night, too much of a breeze across WW. Mild with some sunny spells Monday although quite windy. More cloudy over Pembrokeshire with some rain at times as a slow moving front edged in. Cardigan Bay and Anglesey were very mild as the SE wind gained additional warmth descending adjacent high ground (the foehn effect). Valley on Anglesey reaching 17.7c some 5c above average (Pershore 15.3c, Shobdon 13.1c). Very mild Monday night, parts of Wales staying above 13c which is what it should be on a late October afternoon (Milford Haven 13.3c)! Sporadic rain was largely restricted to Pembrokeshire during Monday night, just the odd spot elsewhere.

Cloudy with rain on and off for much of WW Tuesday, again Pembrokeshire seeing the wettest weather (Whitechurch 17.2mm) with rainfall amounts generally quite small away from SW Wales. Most of the Midlands remained dry with some sunny intervals and was mild or very mild, as was Mid and North Wales (Gogerddan 17.3c, Coton-in-the-Elms 16.4c), while SW Wales cooled down with the rain afternoon to 11 to 13c. Patchy rain spread east across the Midlands during Tuesday night as it cleared Wales and the SW Midlands, the band then developing into heavy rain over the East Midlands on Wednesday morning. A mostly dry and bright day for Wales and the SW Midlands with the rain clearing the East Midlands early afternoon. Rather mild virtually everywhere on Wednesday (Porthmadog 16.2c, Wellesbourne 15.8c), wettest place Nottingham 21.6mm rain.

Mild last Wednesday night, a spell of rain crossed Wales and was over the Midlands by Thursday morning although it became light and patchy here. Rather a damp day then for the Midlands but soon mostly dry over WW with temperatures above average everywhere (Pershore College 15.7c, Mumbles 14.9c). Further rain during Thursday night which cleared  Friday morning to leave a largely dry and brighter afternoon. A very mild day, warm it could be described in places given it is the end of October (Shawbury 18.8c, Gogerddan 18.4c).


The week ahead: Very mild and dry to Monday with fog in places, then becoming less mild and more unsettled with some rain

Very mild last night, exceptionally so at Capel Curig where the temperature 'fell' to 14.5c. Some unusually mild weather to greet November too - a month when readings of 20c are usually out of range given the increasingly short days as Winter looms. However on Sunday and Monday this figure could be reached somewhere across southern Britain such is the warmth of the air arriving here from North Africa through this weekend and into the start of next week. As ever the places getting the highest temperatures will be those fortunate enough to experience several hours of late Autumn sunshine as there may be areas of cloud about as well as fog patches that could prove slow to clear in some places.

Dry with hazy sunny intervals this Saturday afternoon, temperatures widely reaching 16 to 18c, with 19c in a few spots, say Cardigan Bay, so very mild indeed for the last day of October. Interestingly Halloween 2014 saw record breaking warmth as London reached 23c, Pershore 22c, Trawsgoed 21c and Llanwnnen 19.4c. Clear spells Saturday night with thick fog forming in places, no lower than 6 or 7c. Any fog should clear before midday Sunday to give pleasant sunny spells for most, although a few places could be rather more cloudy or foggy for much of the day. Temperatures exceptionally mild for November reaching 16 to 19c where the sun appears for any length of time (early November average is 11 or 12c), and we may be seeing 20c touched say at Hereford or Aberystwyth! Cooler where cloudy/ foggy  at nearer 13 or 14c. Gentle SE to south breezes on Sunday. Again clear spells and calming conditions will see fog forming in some areas on Sunday night.

High pressure over the Continent to our east continues to feed the really mild air originating from North Africa our way on Monday too. Once any fog clears, and it may linger all morning along some river valleys, sunny spells should again occur with very mild even exceptional November temperatures likely once more as maxima attain 15 to 18c, with the odd 19c possible. Light to moderate south to SE breezes. Fog perhaps less widespread Monday night with a bit more of a breeze anticipated. We should have lost the very mild air by Tuesday with a weak front possibly affecting the west. Largely dry with variable cloud and some sunny intervals, the chance of some rain later moving north across Wales and possibly the West Midlands. Temperatures down at 13 to 15c which is though still mild for November.

The rest of the week may turn somewhat more unsettled, although amounts of rain should be small and often it will be mostly dry. Wednesday then may see a trough of low pressure move north over Wales and the Midlands with showery rain in places although some of us escape dry, still on the mild side at 12 to 15c quite light winds. Any rain should clear on Wednesday night with fog patches forming in places. Bonfire Night (Thursday) should be seeing plenty of dry and mild conditions under a ridge, although by the evening a warm front may be bringing some rain and drizzle more especially to WW. Maxima Thursday 13 to 16c.

Next Friday and Saturday we look like being influenced by a deep Atlantic depression that is set to track to the NW of the UK. This will be feeding up mild even very mild air from the SW, but there may well be plenty of cloud with winds from off the Atlantic, which could be strong at times, and so tempering the mildness. Fronts crossing the UK will bring spells of rain and drizzle from time to time, some heavy over WW with only quite small amounts expected for the Midlands. Nights could be very mild indeed in this set up falling no lower than 10 to 12c, while by day it is expected to reach 14 to 16c, with 17c possible given any brighter intervals (which may however be limited).

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