Sunday, 18 October 2015

Weather guide Monday 19th to Sunday 25th October 2015

Last weeks review: Dry and bright West Wales with night frosts; cloudier and cooler Midlands

West Wales fared well last week, completely dry and with a fair bit of sunshine and temperatures around average, though with night frosts featuring; the Midlands however saw much more in the way of cloud with a few showers in places and was often quite cool by day but largely frost free by night.

Last Sunday was quite pleasant with some sunshine for most and quite mild for WW (Porthmadog 16.2c, Newport, Salop 14.9c). Frost and fog in places to greet Monday (Sennybridge/Tirabad min -0.7c, coldest spot in  the UK), it was then a dry day with sunny spells and temperatures near or slightly below normal (Mumbles 16.1c, Pershore 15.7c, Capel Curig 11.8c). Frost for parts of Wales and the West Midlands on Monday night, too much cloud and breeze for the East Midlands (Llanwnnen -1.0c). West Wales fared best for sunshine Tuesday (Aberporth 9.5 hrs sunniest in UK) while the Midlands clouded over afternoon, temperatures rather cool to average (Pembrey 14.7c, Astwood Bank 13.9c, Capel Curig 11.9c).

Frost for parts of Wales and the West Midlands again Tuesday night as the high continued its influence (Capel Curig -1.2c, Pershore grass min -5c), milder over the East Midlands with more cloud and breeze. Wednesday was another dry bright day for WW, but rather cloudy with a few showers for the East Midlands, temperatures again average or quite cool (Whitechurch 14.8c, Pershore College 14.3c, Capel Curig 10.9c). Much of WW remained clear with frost inland on Wednesday night (Llanwnnen -1.3c) but too much cloud and breeze over most of the Midlands and it generally stayed above 5c here (Hereford min 8.0c).

A nice day with sunny periods and fairly mild for much of WW Thursday while the Midlands was rather cool and cloudier with some showers to the SE of Birmingham (most Northants/ Oxon) (Porthmadog 15.7c, Newport, Salop 14.3c, Little Rissington max 10.2c). Ground frost restricted to inland SW Wales on Thursday night (Llanwnnen min 0.6c) with most places cloudy by morning. Plenty of cloud on Friday with a little drizzle in places, average to rather cool temps (Pembrey 14.4c, Hereford 13.0c, Capel Curig 10.8c). Another localised ground frost over inland WW Friday night, cloudy and quite mild Midlands. Saturday then generally cloudy, although bright Anglesey, average to quite cool temps and a dry day (Astwood Bank 14.1c, Valley 13.7c).

The week ahead: Often dry with some sunny spells; some rain Wednesday and next weekend

Changes in the coming week as although we are likely to become more changeable no full Autumnal Atlantic onslaught just yet (November though?) and the Midlands will be grateful to see the sun reappear! Rainfall amounts do look small this week and although most of us will receive some (chiefly during Wednesday and again next weekend) this rather dry October is not going to be greatly impacted.

Last night frost free everywhere and mild over the Midlands (many places above 9c). This Sunday afternoon is rather cloudy again but generally dry, although there could be a spot of drizzle, near average temps 12 to 15c. Mostly cloudy and frost free tonight but cloud breaks over North Wales may produce a grass frost by dawn. Still a ridge of high pressure for Monday keeps it mostly dry but rather cloudy, some sunny intervals, average temps 12 to 15c. Generally frost free overnight again. The wind shifts to the NW on Tuesday so better prospects for some mild sunshine for the Midlands, some sunny intervals for WW as well and another mostly dry day, highs 12 to 15c (best Midlands and South Wales).

Changes midweek as the high sinks south over France allowing Atlantic fronts to affect our weather at long last! A warm front may have already brought light rain and drizzle in places by dawn Wednesday, and it will be a mostly cloudy breezy day with occasional light rain or drizzle which tends to die out eventually during the afternoon. Highs mild at 13 to 16c but with a moderate to fresh WNW breeze. Mild and breezy Wednesday night with drizzle in places, no lower than 9c. The cold front clears any drizzle or rain early Thursday to give some sunny spells and a mostly dry afternoon if fresher, highs 12 to 14c with a moderate NW breeze.

There should be a ridge giving a calming dry night Thursday night with local ground frost and fog, perhaps touching 0c in colder spots. The ridge should hang on long enough to give us a pleasant dry and quite mild Friday with sunny spells, maxima 12 to 15c. Models all over the place by next weekend, best guess would be for somewhat changeable, some rain or showers about but with dry brighter spells as well, a few of us even scraping a predominantly dry weekend! Temperatures near normal (max 11 to 14c) with ground frost risk should it clear by night.

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