Sunday, 11 October 2015

Weather guide Monday 12th to Sunday 18th October 2015

Last weeks review: Rather warm and unsettled became dry with some sun but cooler

Last Sunday was fine dry and quite mild  (Porthmadog 17.8c, Astwood Bank, nr Redditch, Worc 17.6c). The dry spell ended on Monday, many places having had 9 or 10 successive dry days, the 9 here at Llanwnnen being the second longest dry spell of the year (11 days in April). Mild and humid for the early part of the week, warm even for much of the West Midlands thanks to a few sunny intervals and the mild airmass (Monday maxima Hereford 19.9c, Trawsgoed 18.6c, Aberdaron 15.5c). Very mild nights also, coastal parts of WW remained above 13c Sunday night, while Monday night some places not falling below 14c (Shawbury min 14.9c, Mumbles 14.7c) which is about what maxima should be in early October!

17.4mm rain at Whitechurch (Pembs) in the 24 hours to 2100 Monday the wettest spot, while rain and showers amounted to over half an inch other areas too by Tuesday morning (24 hour totals Little Rissington 17.2mm, Long Lawford 15.6mm). Plenty of showers and some longer spells of rain Tuesday, but also with a few warm sunny intervals. The worst of the downpours over the Midlands and Mid Wales with thunder in a few places (Milford Haven 19.9c, Nottingham 19.4c). Church Lawford was the wettest place in the UK for the 24 hours to 1800 Tuesday with 27.0mm rain, in contrast there was just 2.8mm at Hereford.

Soggy Tuesday
Cardigan Bay and parts of North Wales were prone to streams of heavy showers merging into longer spells of rain through Tuesday evening and night, 32mm falling in the 12 hours to 0600 Wednesday at Aberporth with a PWS at Mynydd Llandegai, Snowdonia caught 2.28 inches (58mm). The low and attendant remnants of showery rain moved away east during Wednesday as we were left in a much cooler NW flow (Mumbles 15.2c, Aberporth 12.7c).

Thursday dry and bright under high pressure and rather above average temperatures generally (Pershore College 18.2c, Whitechurch 17.6c). Ground frost seems to have been restricted to Worcestershire on Wednesday night (Pershore grass min -2c) but was a little more widespread on Thursday night (Shobdon air min +1.4c). Dry again Friday, best of the sunshine over the Midlands, it was quite warm in places (Winterbourne, B'ham 18.0c, Whitechurch 17.9c, Aberdaron 14.4c). Rather cloudy but mostly dry bar a few spits Saturday and cooler with the ENE breeze (Valley 15.2c, Pershore 14.6c).

The week ahead: Mostly dry, some sunny spells, often rather cool

High pressure set to dominate this week positioned to our north or NW meaning that areas of cloud will be problematic as the cool NE flow crosses the North Sea. One of those weeks where some days could prove mostly cloudy and cool while other are pleasantly sunny, but varying from region to region, with SW Wales more favoured for brightness to prevail. Ground frosts are likely at virtually any stage this week where cloud breaks and wind drop permit.

Sunday is a pleasant day with sunny intervals and temperatures rather above average at 14 to 16c with only gentle breezes. Clear spells tonight with a ground frost over parts of the Marches and Mid Wales, 1c in places, milder and more breeze for the SE Midlands (min 7c in towns). High pressure close to Ireland Monday with a weak front moving down from the north which brings little more than cloud during the afternoon, perhaps a spot of drizzle for NW Wales though. There should be sunny intervals again Monday but cooler with the NE breeze, highs generally 12 to 14c. Clear intervals overnight and too much breeze for frost.

A large high lies across northern Britain on Tuesday which is dry with variable and perhaps extensive cloud with some sunny intervals and quite a keen NE breeze, maxima 12c or so where cloudy but up to 15c if sunny. The breeze may ease and cloud clear sufficiently to give a widespread ground frost on Tuesday night for the West Midlands and inland WW, touching 0c in a few spots. Similar for Wednesday, largely dry with sunny intervals, WW could well be quite sunny at times while the East Midlands may be rather cloudy afternoon with a spot of drizzle possible, highs 12 to 14c and only light winds. Ground frost and fog for the same prone areas overnight.

High pressure over England and Wales on Thursday, fronts moving down from the north later will weaken but cloud it over for North Wales and the North Midlands, generally thought some sunny spells are likely, highs of 12 to 14c again, close to or a little below average for mid October. This weak front could just about produce a dampening of drizzle in places during Thursday night. The next high cell is centred close to western Ireland by the end of the week so the breeze coming around from the north or NE is still rather cool. Variable cloud, best of the sun perhaps SW Wales, East Midlands more cloud prone, highs again 12 to 14c but breezy.

Still a generally dry picture even next weekend with the high remaining west of Ireland feeding down rather cool north to NE winds, which could be fresh at times. Cloud could be quite extensive and so sunny intervals more at a premium. The high could pull west enough for fronts to threaten the east, so the East Midlands at risk of some showery rain or drizzle perhaps at some stage. Feeling cool in the breeze, highs in the 11 to 15c range. With more wind and cloud frost is unlikely anywhere over the weekend. Only small amounts of rain showing even towards the end of October so it may end up quite a dry month in many areas!

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