Sunday, 6 September 2015

Weather guide Monday 7th to Sunday 13th September 2015

Last weeks review: Cool or very cool and rather cloudy with showers and some longer spells of rain

Rather cloudy last Sunday with some rain in many places eventually, though amounts small everywhere, and much of NW Wales stayed dry. Temperatures close to or below normal (Porthmadog 19.2c, Nottingham 19.1c). Many places saw more appreciable rain during Sunday night, and for the Midlands it was a very cool, cloudy and rather wet Monday, almost an inch of rain in places (Shobdon 16.4c, Northampton just 14.0c, Market Bosworth 17.6mm rain). It was the coolest day of the whole Summer at Coventry (max 14.6c). Mostly dry though on Monday, bar a few showers, for West Wales and it brightened up here with temperatures closer to average (Pembrey 19.1c) and for NW Wales it was a sunny and reasonably warm day (Porthmadog 19.6c, Valley 12.3 hours).

Sunny intervals and some showers Tuesday, heavy with thunder in places, as ever quite a few places missed them, cool to average temperatures (Astwood Bank, Worc 20.0c, Mumbles 17.9c, Aberporth 15.0c). Torrential downpours and thunder over the Brum - Coventry areas during the evening (Coventry 17.8mm). Further showers in many places Wednesday too, Ceredigion and Snowdonia particularly prone to the showers, while more sheltered SW Wales and parts of the Midlands were largely dry with sunny intervals. Cool everywhere and particularly so for cloudy damp Ceredigion (Pershore 18.5c, Pembrey 17.0c, Swyddfynnon max 12.8c).

Very cool and breezy and rather cloudy Thursday but with showers fewer and lighter, and more places tending to stay dry. Many places failed to top just 60f 15.6c (Pershore 16.4c, Valley 16.0c, Capel Curig 13.2c), these figures 3 to 5c below the early September average. Only a few light showers left come Friday, but still that cool north to NW breeze (Pershore 18.5c, Mumbles 16.7c, Aberporth 13.7c). Some rain and drizzle Friday night/ Saturday morning (mostly Wales) but it became fine and bright eventually in most areas. Still cool and breezy although not too bad along the South Wales coast (Pembrey 18.1c, Pershore 16.6c, cloudier Little Rissington 14.0c). Cool on Saturday night close to freezing in places (Sennybridge/ Tirabad  1.5c, Llanwnnen 1.7c).

August review: Rather cool and cloudy, wet in places

The poorest aspect of August regards Summer weather was the lack of sunshine, as although we lacked a prolonged warm spell temperatures averaged out only slightly below average. Rainfall was quite variable as is typical of a Summer month, some places had a very wet month with almost twice the average (Shobon 190%) while others were marginally on the dry side (Capel Curig 97%).  Some rainfall totals:

Valley c. 80mm
Capel Curig 175.8mm 97%
Llanwnnen 108.5mm 100%
Aberporth 70.6mm 103%
Pembrey Sands 138.4mm 154%
Milford Haven 110.0mm 

Shobdon, Herefordshire 116.2mm 190%
Coventry, Bablake School 65.8mm 100%
Church Lawford, Warks 72.2mm 
Long Lawford c. 74.8mm 124%
Pershore c. 92mm 
Little Rissington 61.0mm 106%

Summer 2015 review: Rather cool and changeable

June was fine and dry if not so warm, while July and August proved disappointingly cool and cloudy. Hot spells were brief at best although the Midlands did see very hot weather into the low 90's f (above 32c) at the very start of July. Rainfall for Summer 2015 ranged from somewhat below to around average in most places, with only a few spots rather wet due to localised downpours (as at Pershore).

Summer rainfall totals:

Valley c. 167mm
Llanwnnen 258.0mm 92%
Pembrey Sands c. 244mm

Long Lawford 176.3mm 99%
Church Lawford c. 174mm
Coventry, Bablake school 176.0mm 102%
Pershore c. 190mm

The coming week: Dry with some sunshine and becoming warm; some rain eventually next weekend

High pressure gradually traverses the UK in the first part of this week on its journey to Western Russia via Scandinavia. A mostly dry week to come, warmer than the latter part of August and certainly feeling so after the cool start to September we have endured. However, as in usually the case with anticyclones cloud amounts difficult to ascertain, they will be variable and in places extensive, so that some days some areas fare well for sunshine while others are cloudy and cooler. Most of us should see at least a couple of fine warm Autumn days though this week with temperatures around 21c come the end of the week. The weather may well break down into a more unsettled pattern come next weekend, with some rain about by then.

The high is moving into Ireland today (Sunday) a dry afternoon with variable cloud and at least some sunny intervals for most, best of the sunshine for the SW Midlands and South Wales, more cloud affecting Irish Sea coasts, highs ranging from just 16c where it remains overcast to 20c where decent sunny spells occur, and at last that chill north wind has been cut off! Clear spells and a cool night to come, locally 2c again for the Marches and Mid Wales, there could be more cloud for the East Midlands where it would then remain above 9c. A similar day Monday of variable cloud, decent sunny spells in places but rather cloudy in others temperatures 16 to 20c, gentle breezes. Again a chilly night where cloud breaks permit, close to a ground frost very locally.

By Tuesday the high is leaving Scotland into the North Sea this having the affect of turning winds to the east which should benefit WW where the sun should make more of an appearance and it should warm up. Parts of the Midlands on the other hand rather cloudy perhaps? Temperatures again 16c where cloudy, 20c for more fortunate bright areas such as Pembrokeshire. A more definite SE breeze come Wednesday, a dry day again with better prospects for sunny spells in most places, and a warmer day, maxima generally 18 to 21c, perhaps the odd 22c. Nights are not so cool for the middle of the week with more of a breeze.

With the anticyclone over Scandinavia by Thursday we start to see Atlantic fronts encroaching towards SW UK. This may have the effect of tightening the isobars so that for Thursday and Friday it is quite windy, however the air is coming from well to the SE or south at this stage and it will be rather warm. Still perhaps areas of cloud about but most places would be expected to see pleasant sunny spells during Thursday and Friday and there is the potential for temperatures to exceed 21c widely and highest readings could be around 24c.

The weather looks like breaking down during next weekend, although Saturday could just about hold onto the dry, bright and warm conditions. However there may be some showery rain about especially across Wales Saturday, and a trough may well be giving us all some rain and lower temperatures come Sunday but that is a long way off..

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