Sunday, 13 September 2015

Weather guide Monday 14th to Sunday 20th September 2015

Last weeks review: Dry with some sunshine and warmth at times (especially Thursday), rain Friday night into Saturday

Most of West Wales was rather cloudy and cool last Sunday but with some sunny spells especially further south and well inland, the Midlands had a lovely sunny day with temperatures close to average (Pershore 19.9c, Mumbles 18.6c) - particularly cool for Cardigan Bay coasts (Aberporth max 14.2c). Many places had plenty of sunshine on Monday except it was cloudier for the East Midlands and Anglesey at times (Hereford 20.4c), a big contrast between the coast and inland  Ceredigion (Llanwnnen 18.9c, Aberporth 14.5c).

Chilly again Monday night with a touch of ground frost in a few spots (Pershore grass min -1c, Llanwnnen air min 1.4c). An east breeze around the high to our north gave big contrasts east to west on Tuesday, the Midlands very cool as cloud came off the North Sea while WW had almost unbroken sunshine and was rather warm (RAF Mona 21.0c, Little Rissington 15.4c, Nottingham 13.0c). Variable cloud with most places seeing some sunny spells Wednesday, although quite a lot of cloud for the Midlands in particular. Temperatures depended on amounts of sun but were generally close to or slightly below average (Pershore 18.2c, Capel Curig 15.4c) but rather warm for parts of WW (Llanwnnen 20.3c).

A lovely warm and rather sunny day virtually everywhere Thursday, many places getting above 20c (Coton-in-the-Elms, Notts 22.9c, Whitechurch, Pembs 22.1c, ). Friday then a breezy day, rather warm and quite sunny for the Midlands again, but more cloudy although rather warm for WW (Pershore, Mona & Valley all 21.9c).  A little rain in places Friday evening with a rather wet night for many, some heavy rain in places, especially Wales and parts of the West Midlands (Milford Haven 23mm). Some sunshine for Saturday afternoon with very few showers about, a cooler fresher day especially for Wales (Coleshill 19.5c, Llanwnnen 16.8c, Capel Curig 14.0c).

The week ahead: Cool and unsettled; wet and windy at times, drier and warmer next weekend

Sunny intervals and only a few scattered showers for most of Sunday, temperatures near average at 16 to 19c. Showery rain will be arriving this evening into South Wales with bits and pieces of rain possible anywhere during tonight. A low is slowly moving north across Wales and the Midlands during Monday, a lot of cloud tomorrow with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places, potential for localised flooding. A few sunny intervals too though, maxima cool at 14 to 17c, perhaps an 18c for brighter spots of the Midlands. Further showery rain in places for Monday night as well, although generally it becomes rather drier by dawn. The low is moving away into the North Sea during Tuesday, sunny intervals and scattered showers with a cool NW breeze, highs again 14 to 17c, even lower for shower prone Snowdonia (max 13c). Any showers dying out during the evening, clear periods and a chilly night, a ground frost possible, as low as 2c for North Wales and rural Shropshire.

The next low is in the SW approaches by Wednesday morning, some uncertainty as to the track and form of what may well be a deep and nasty low but it is likely to give many places a wet and windy day. It will be cloudy in most places by dawn Wednesday with rain edging north during the morning, some of this could be very heavy and accompanied by a fresh to strong east wind (with the low to our south). Further rain, very heavy in places through the afternoon. There could well be damaging gales associated with this low, at this stage Northern France and the Low Countries seem most likely to be affected, but this prognosis could change with parts of the UK coming into the firing line as well? Highs Wednesday rather cool with all the cloud and rain, once more being in the 14 to 17c bracket, cooler for the wetter areas though (max 13c).

The low will be crossing southern Britain during Wednesday night, further rain or showers in its circulation, but by this stage some areas will be drier, the wind dropping within the low itself (Midlands?) although peripheral areas (Irish Sea?) could be seeing strong to gale force WNW winds overnight. The low moves away NE across the Irish Sea during Thursday, a cool, windy and showery day, longer spells of rain possible too in places, highs just 13 to 17c. The worst of the wind and rain or showers should be over by Thursday night as things turn calmer and drier. Still some scattered showers about for Friday but better chances of escaping largely dry and bright and the wind is lighter, maxima a touch higher at 15 to 18c.

Next weekend may be somewhat changeable but much less disturbed than was the midweek period! Pressure will have undergone a substantial recovery by then and although there could be some fronts bringing some rain at times, a rather drier and warmer picture does seem likely.

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