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Saturday, 29 August 2015

Weather guide Sunday August 30th to Sunday 6th September 2015

Last weeks review:  Showery and rather cool

Wet last Sunday across much of Wales, thunderstorms during the morning over Herefordshire, with some rain in the afternoon for the rest of the Midlands (Hereford 40mm in the 24 hours to midday). Warm for the Midlands before the rain  arrived, a very cool day for WW (Sutton Bonington, Notts 27.0c, Aberdaron max 14.0c). Cool and cloudy with rain at times for much of the Midlands on Monday, most of WW was dry with sunny intervals but temperatures still on the cool side (Porthmadog 19.3c, Nottingham 18.4c, Little Rissington 14.8c). It became clear and cool Monday night (Llanwnnen 4.8c, Shobdon 7.2c) parts of the Midlands not so cool though (Church Lawford 10.6c) nor along the south coast (Mumbles min 13.1c). After a dry start rain at times in most places during Tuesday which was a cool day (Pershore 18.7c, Aberystwyth 18.2c, Aberdaron 15.6c). Much of the rain quite light with very little over parts of the Midlands while some of the rain over Wales was heavy.

Rain and squally winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, heaviest over South Wales (Mumbles 25.4mm, exactly 1 inch) with gusts to 50mph over some exposed parts of Wales such as Pembrey Sands.  Sunny intervals and some showers followed but many places missed most of these these and had a dry bright afternoon, temperatures near or a little below average (Pershore 21.9c, Trawsgoed 19.5c, Capel Curig 16.4c). A breezy Thursday saw sunny intervals and showers, some of these being heavy with a rumble of thunder in places, while some places stayed dry and fairly sunny (Mumbles 8mm, Shawbury 0mm/ 10 hrs sun). Temperatures rather below average (Nottingham 19.8c, Llanwnnen 18.3c, Aberdaron 16.0c).

Sun and showers Friday as well, some heavy ones over Wales, but few affecting the Midlands and quite a few places stayed dry and bright here (Wellesbourne 10 hours sun), as did some coastal parts of Wales. A breezy day with temperatures near or below average (Hereford 20.6c, Mumbles 18.9c, Capel Curig). A scattering of showers also during today (Saturday) these fewer and farther between once more though and much of the Midlands is having a dry, bright afternoon with temperatures well up to the late August average (21c Midlands, 19c WW).

The week ahead: Cool; showery to midweek  becoming mostly dry with sunny intervals

A plume of warm air attempts but fails to extend north on Sunday, instead the warm front is set to give rain in places Sunday into Monday, more especially for the Midlands. It looks as though the rain will be patchy at worst on Sunday and largely restricted to the Midlands with WW having a largely dry day, sunny intervals in many places too. Temperatures in the 17 to 20c bracket Sunday close to average. Hard to say as this front is giving the models a headache, but the rain may become more organised during Sunday night and affect both Wales and the Midlands, so some heavy rain in places during the night, no lower than 10c away from NW Wales which should stay dry with clear intervals.

Rain perhaps lingering into Monday morning across the Midlands but should be turning showery, with then a sunny intervals and showers afternoon for most places, parts of Wales staying dry, highs generally 17 or 18c but just 15c for the East Midlands if the cloud and  rain sticks. Any showers tending to die out during Monday night with clear spells. Tuesday and Wednesday we are between high pressure over the Atlantic and a deep low over Scandinavia, a cool rather showery north to NE airstream with sunny intervals, some places and more especially South Wales, escaping the worst of the showers, but some heavy showers over the Midlands in the afternoons perhaps with thunder very locally, highs between 15 and 18c for most parts.

Subtle changes from Thursday as the high may edge closer to Ireland and intensify winds turning more definitely NE. What does this mean for our weather? Well, it stays cool, WW most favoured for any sunny spells, whilst then East Midlands is most likely to still be getting some showers at times, highs 15 to 18c. Should skies clear sufficiently and given light enough winds by night then there will be ground frost in some rural spots minima as low 2c in the air. High pressure looks like staying to our west even into next weekend, which therefore continues on the cool side (north to NE breeze), often dry with sunny intervals, Pembrokeshire favoured best for higher amounts of sunshine, with any sacttered showers tending to be over the Midlands, highs 15 to 18c, perhaps a 20c for SW Wales.

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