Sunday, 23 August 2015

Weather guide Monday 24th to Bank Holiday Monday 31st August 2015

Last weeks review: Another mixed bag; rather warm and dry parts of the Midlands

Dry with some sunny intervals last Sunday, temperatures close to or somewhat below normal (Church Lawford 21.2c, Llanwnnen 19.9c).  Sunny intervals and feeling pleasantly warm Monday and dry again (Llanwnnen 21.7c, Church Lawford 21.5c), Welsh coasts being quite sunny (Valley 13.3 hours).   Further cool Summer nights early last week though, (Capel Curig min 3.5c Monday night), with an almost unprecedented run of very cool August nights here at Llanwnnen, minima 15th - 18th: 6.2c, 2.4c, 4.3c, 3.8c. Contrasting fortunes on Tuesday, a lovely rather warm and sunny day for much of Wales, quite nice for Shropshire and Herefordshire too with some sun,  however a rain front over Eastern England (last weeks guide expected this rain to stick close to the east coast) made it disappointingly cloudy over the Midlands with some light rain getting far west as Leicester and Derby (Hereford 23.1c, Llanwnnen 20.3c).

Mostly cloudy with rain and drizzle for WW on Wednesday, some of this very heavy in places (Pembrey Sands 25.8mm).  After some early sunshine some light rain for much of the Midlands eventually during the afternoon or evening. A cool day with all the cloud and rain across Wales and the West Midlands, only the East Midlands getting close to average (Nottingham 21.0c, Aberystwyth 18.2c, Aberdaron 16.0c). Humid and rather cloudy with light rain or drizzle in places Thursday (Pershore 23.2c, Trawsgoed 22.1c), and warm on Thursday night nowhere below 15c (Nottingham min 17.6c).  More in the way of rain and drizzle across Wales on Friday, some quite heavy over the hills (Capel Curig 18mm), the Midlands stayed largely dry but with a lot of cloud. Another humid day and quite warm over the Midlands where it brightened (Church Lawford 22.8c) and also around Aberystwyth (Trawsgoed 21.7c).

Rain for a time on Saturday across WW, while the Midlands was in a plume of very warm SE winds. The sun appeared over much of WW eventually and it ended up quite warm and humid in places (Llanwnnen 22.4c), but remained cool and damp further west (Aberdaron 15.5c), while much of the Midlands was hot and sticky (Wellesbourne 29.3c), Thunderstorms broke out over the North and West Midlands in particular during the late afternoon and evening these quite severe in places especially Shropshire and Herefordshire (Shobdon 21mm).  A wet Saturday night and Sunday morning for much of WW (Milford Haven 36mm in the 24 hours to 0600), in contrast little if any rain so far this weekend for parts of the Central and East Midlands (Church Lawford 0.8mm same 24 hr period).

The week ahead: Unsettled and rather cool, several wet days; perhaps drier and warmer next weekend

Rain lingering over North Wales on Sunday afternoon, but for much of Wales it becomes mostly dry with sunny intervals. There have been futher thunderstorms over the Welsh Marches this Sunday morning, this band of rain and in places thunderstorms be progressing NE during the afternoon to the rest of the Midlands. Highs Sunday varying from a very cool 15c for wet NW Wales to a warm 26c for Nottinghamshire. Rain clears North Midlands before midnight to leave a largely dry and cooler, fresher night than of late, mins 9 to 12c. Another low is set to cross SE England during Monday and will bring wet weather into the Midlands in particular. A wet day seems likely then for most of the Midlands, potentially an inch for some spots, some rain or showers affecting Wales too on Monday, but some areas here escaping with a dry day. A cool or very cool day, probably no higher than 18c anywhere, and for the wetter areas just 15c. The rain clears to leave another mostly dry and cool night.

Tuesday may start dry and bright but more fronts will be moving NE bringing further rain, this heavy in places. Another mostly cloudy and cool day too, maxima 16 to 19c, with a fresh SW wind. It may dry up later in the day across SW Wales and more generally during Tuesday evening and early night. However, yet another pulse of wet and quite windy weather may be coming through during the night into Wednesday morning, with this rain perhaps lingering well into the day over the Midlands, but should turn to sun and showers across Wales. Showers and a possible longer spells of rain and quite windy at times sums up Thursday as deep areas of low pressure track to our NW, some spots may escape though with a not so bad a day.

Low pressure influence eases somewhat by the end of the week so hopes that it becomes rather drier, brighter and warmer, there are still likely to be showers in places however on both Friday and Saturday, temperatures improved then at max 19 to 22c, and close to average for the end of August. Signals do not suggest a lot of rain for next Sunday nor the Bank Holiday Monday either, however some of the models are showing another troublesome low arriving from the south that would bring further cool and wet weather similar to what will be the case tomorrow, this would spoil the Bank Holiday but seems one of the less likely scenarios, best bet would be for sunny intervals and a few showers and near average temperatures.

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