Sunday, 9 August 2015

Weather guide Monday 10th to Sunday 16th August 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable with some rain at times; cool to average temperatures

Warm last Sunday after the prolonged cool spell with most places above 20c (Wellesbourne, Warks 25.8c, Pembrey Sands 22.5c), there were a few showers about but most places were dry with some sunshine. In contrast to the cool late July nights Sunday night was nice and warm, no lower than 16c in places (Trawsgoed 16.5c), there was a little rain in places, mostly for parts of Wales (Milford Haven 3mm). Further small amounts of showery rain across Wales on Monday, with much of the Midlands having another largely dry, bright and quite warm day, it was cooler out west though (Church Lawford 23.2c, Llanwnnen 19.0c). Tuesday was cool, windy and showery across much of Wales (Valley 18.1c, Llanwnnen 15.6c) only a few showers surviving across the hills to the Midlands, some pleasant sunny intervals here raising temperatures closer to the average in places (Coleshill 20.8c). Winds reached 50mph for some exposed parts of Wales such as Capel Curig which (not unusually) was also the coolest and wettest place on Tuesday (max 14.2c, 14mm).

Mostly dry and bright for a time on Wednesday, showers and some longer spells of rain arrived eventually afternoon or evening to much of Wales, with some also to parts of the Midlands although many places here escaped dry. Temperatures near or a little below average (Wellesbourne 21.6c, Trawsgoed 20.0c) but cool for some more exposed and cloudy parts (Aberdaron 16.0c). SW Wales caught the worst of the rain and showers (Whitechurch, Pembs 16.6mm). Apart from a few light showers Thursday was a mostly dry day with some sunshine, quite warm over the Central & East Midlands (Wellesbourne 23.4c, Coleshill & Church Lawford 23.3c) but temperatures still somewhat down on where they should be in August over most of Wales (Llanwnnen 18.8c, Aberporth 15.3c). Thursday night a cool one across Wales in particular (Capel Curig & Swyddfynnon 4.0c) with a foggy start to Friday in places (as here at Llanwnnen).

Variable cloud on Friday but most places saw at least some pleasant sunny spells and it was a dry day almost everywhere It became reasonably warm for some (Church Lawford 22.1c, Porthmadog & Llanwnnen 21.3c) but cooling sea breezes affected southern Cardigan Bay (Aberporth 16.4c). Saturday the nicest day of the week, plenty of warm sunshine once any mist or fog cleared and for most areas it was the warmest day of the month thus far (Wellesbourne 26.6c, Llanwnnen 22.8c) but cooler for some coasts (Aberdaron 17.3c).

The coming week: Some rain or showers about; average to warm temperatures in the main

A mixed start to August with near normal temperatures for most places, although parts of Wales have been quite cool overall so far. It has been quite dry in many places thus far with parts of the Midlands having had next to nothing in the past week or so (Church Lawford just 0.4mm to 8th Aug). Another mixed week to come with rain chances on many days this week although much of this is sporadic and hit and miss in nature, so come next weekend no doubt there will still remain some August dry spots..

Rather cloudy and breezy for the rest of Sunday, still with a little drizzle in places (chiefly WW) but this tending to die out by late afternoon, there will also be some bright or sunny intervals, especially for the Midlands. Quite warm over the Midlands, up to 23c where there are decent sunny breaks, more like 18 to 20c across WW and quite a humid feel. Further mostly light rain and drizzle arrives across Wales later this evening and overnight, mostly dry though for the Midlands, no lower than 13c. Fronts crossing the country during Monday, a lot of cloud with rain or drizzle on and off for most places, although it should be clearing through most places by the end of the afternoon. Some bright or sunny intervals to be had on Monday, but generally a lot of cloud, maxima of 19 or 20c WW and 21 to 23c Midlands and another breezy day. A dry night follows bar the odd light shower, cooler and fresher down to 7c locally over Wales.

A ridge for Tuesday should provide a dry bright day for most, just the chance of catching a rogue light shower, highs between 18 and 21c, with less of a breeze, it will be a dry night as well. The ridge may well be declining during Wednesday as a thundery low moves north over France. Tricky to forecast the advance and nature of the fronts associated with this low as they edge north later in the day, and ahead of it the weather will be dry and rather warm with some sunshine, temperatures reaching at least 21c. All that can be predicted is for the threat of sporadic rain later in the day, some of this heavy and thundery, and more especially for the South Midlands. Where this cloud and rain arrives it will halt the temperature rise, so parts of the Midlands may get no higher than 19c on Wednesday, but any sunny intervals breaking through would readily permit 22 or 23c and it would be feeling humid. Still some rain or showers in places on Wednesday night, some us no doubt seeing lightning in this situation too.

Relatively low pressure and warm air over southern Britain on Thursday, there should be sunny intervals but with patchy rain or thundery showers about, hard to say precisely where, some places getting downpours, while other escape dry, pretty localised stuff. Warm and humid over the Midlands with possibly the odd 27c (81f) recorded, it could be quite warm over South Wales, say 21 to 23c here, but North Wales may end up cool, cloudy and damp and no higher than 17c. Still the risk of thundery downpours through Thursday night and it could well be a warm sticky night for the Midlands in particular, no lower than 15c here. We should all be in cooler and fresher westerlies come Friday afternoon, any residual rain or thundery showers should be clearing away NE in the morning to leave sunny intervals and a few showers for the afternoon (but this is a long way off). Chance of a warm 23c for the East Midlands on Friday, but eslewhere more likely 18 to 21c. Still somewhat unsettled with below average temperatures for next Saturday it would appear with Sunday looking generally dry - but a lot of weather headaches to come before that!

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