Sunday, 19 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 20th to Sunday 26th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable with some rain at times but became mostly dry

Some showery rain for a time last Sunday, not much for most but with localised downpours such as at Pershore, Worc (19mm) while not so far away Hereford only had 1.2mm, and lightning was seen from Rugby and Warwick. Pershore was also the warmest spot in our regions as well as wettest (24.4c). Cloudy with some rain for a time on Monday, quite cool for much of damp West Wales (Aberdaron 16.3c, Llanwnnen 17.4c) but with near normal temperatures Midlands and for some coastal areas (Pershore 21.7c, Mona 18.7c). Gogerddan near Aberystwyth was the wettest place officially in the UK last Monday with a fall of 18.6mm, although a PWS (Personal Weather Station) near Machynlleth recorded around 30mm. There was further occasional patchy rain and drizzle for many of us during Tuesday but with dry periods too, and as ever some spots escaped dry. Tuesday also a mostly cloudy humid day with temperatures a touch below average, although rather warm for a few spots in NW Wales where, just beyond the rain front, it was a dry day with sunny spells (Porthmadog 20.8c, Hereford 20.7c,) but cool for southern Cardigan Bay coasts with all the damp (Aberporth 14.9c).

Dry and largely sunny then on Wednesday once the lingering cloud broke over the Midlands but a fresher feeling day, although with temperatures a touch higher over south Wales and most of the Midlands (Pershore 21.4c, Pembrey Sands 19.4c), but cooler for north and west Wales (Aberdaron 15.2c). Cool on Wednesday night down to just 3.7c at Capel Curig and 4.1c Shobdon (Herefordshire) with many rural parts below 7c (an average July night would be 11 to 13c inland). Thursday was the warmest day of the week (Pershore 24.8c, Porthmadog 24.6c) as another short-lived plume of warmth arrived from the south, some showers in places especially Pembrokeshire in the afternoon and where it was cooler as a result (Milford Haven max 18.6c)  A few showers over the Midlands during the evening but for many it stayed largely dry although it was not an especially sunny day (41.4c reached in central France on Thursday). Thursday night very mild, only falling to 16.8c at Hereford then showers for a few spots Friday but largely dry again and a cooler, fresher quite windy day (Pershore 22.0c, Llanwnnen 19.7c). Dry but breezy with sunny spells and around average temperatures Saturday (Hereford 22.3c, Llanwnnen 20.2c, Mumbles 19.5c).

The week ahead: Unsettled, breezy and often rather cool; dry, brighter intervals too

A splash of rain for most places Saturday night into this Sunday morning (it cleared WW soon after dawn) and with further occasional splashes of rain this week to keep the gardens satisfied although not so welcome for those on holiday! Worth bearing in mind that even rather below average temperatures in the Summer will feel pleasant enough given a sunny interval, so not all doom and gloom this week although when cloudy and breezy it will be feeling cool. Mostly dry this afternoon with sunny spells highs in the familiar Summer 2015 range of 18 to 22c, feeling pleasant enough although quite breezy again. Clear periods and cool tonight as low as 5c in some rural spots although it will have clouded over across SW Wales by dawn as further weather fronts arrive for Monday.  A cloudy morning with mostly light rain and drizzle at times for WW this spreading to the Midlands afternoon, although some places here stay mostly dry. Some brighter intervals raising temperatures to 23c for parts of the Midlands as we will be in a warm sector, while for WW the rain clears to a few showers and late sunny intervals, highs more like 18 to 20c here. Quite a windy day too as well as damp at times with clear spells and just the odd shower during Monday night.

Quite a lot of cloud with some sunny intervals and showers (mostly light) on Tuesday, quite windy again, highs a cool 15 to 18c WW and 19 to 21c Midlands. Some places will miss the showers. Mostly dry overnight no lower than 9c. Rather unsettled again Wednesday, after a mostly dry and bright morning it turns showery with a possible longer spell of rain during the afternoon or evening, and some of this rain could be heavy in places. Maxima a cool 15 to 18c WW and around 20c Midlands. A cool NW flow for Thursday, sunny intervals and a few showers, highs below average again at 16 to 20c (highest Midlands). Clear periods and a chilly night follows down as low as 5c in the countryside. Friday may see a ridge and offers the best chance of pleasant dry weather with sunny spells, although some models still showing some showers about, so not all of us entirely dry perhaps. Maxima still disappointing in the 16 to 20c range as the air mass is distinctly cool by the end of the week. Another cool night to follow, not far off a ground frost even for some rural spots, while temperatures at 4 feet as low as 4c.

Next weekend still looking below average but besides that the outlook less certain. Best stab is another rather mixed weekend, there should be plenty of generally dry weather with some sunshine (especially Saturday) while Sunday seems the most likely day for some rain to arrive with the potential of a wet day. The models still not showing any proper dry, warm settled Summery weather out into early August even.

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