Sunday, 26 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 27th July to Sunday 2nd August 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable; very cool and wet Friday

Plenty of sunshine last Sunday afternoon with temperatures near average (Pershore 21.9c, Llanwnnen 19.3c) although cool for those typically exposed coasts (Aberdaron 15.6c). Some rain or showers about on Monday but falling in mostly small amounts, it was a warm, humid day for the Midlands (Wellesbourne, Warks 25.1c, Llanwnnen & Trawsgoed 20.3c). Limited sunny intervals with a lot of cloud on Tuesday with a scattering of mostly light showers, although parts of the Midlands did manage some better warm sunny spells (Pershore 24.4c), temperatures were up to average across SW Wales (Pembrey Sands 19.5c) but cool for NW Wales (Capel Curig max only 14.7c). Much of the Midlands and parts of West Wales (WW) stayed dry on Tuesday. Showers in places once more last Wednesday, some quite heavy over the Midlands, but as ever some spots escaped with a dry day (Coventry catching 6.8mm but less than 1mm at nearby Church Lawford). West Wales faring best with nice sunny spells afternoon (Aberporth 8.8 hours), and temperatures somewhat below average generally (Pershore 21.2c,  Pembrey 19.6c).

Mostly dry and rather cool then on Thursday, best of the sunny intervals over the Midlands and south coast of Wales where some places managed to get close to the July average (Church Lawford 20.9c, Mumbles 18.8c), with just a few showers scattered about, mostly over SW and Mid Wales. Contrary to the model indications used in last weeks guide ("Friday may see a ridge and offers the best chance of pleasant dry weather") it was rather quite a shocker being very cool, dull and rather wet for most of us as a low tracked along the English Channel.  Most places failed to top just 60f (15.6c) on Friday, the least cool being Milford Haven 16.2c and Nottingham 15.3c, while coolest places were Aberporth max 13.0c and Little Rissington 12.8c, temperatures more akin to October than High Summer these. It was the coolest July day for many years over the Midlands, at Coventry the 'high' of 13.6c made it the coolest high since July 1978 (12.8c). The rain tended to be persistent rather than heavy during Friday, the wettest spots Little Rissington (Cotswolds) 25mm and Whitechurch (Pembs) 23.8mm, Anglesey and the North Midlands though did stay on the northern most edge of the rainy zone getting very little. A bright and generally dry reprieve Saturday with pleasant sunny spells although temperatures were still rather below average (Pershore 21.5c, Mumbles 18.2c) and decidedly cool around Cardigan Bay (Aberporth max 14.8c).

An unseasonably cool July day!

The week ahead: Cool and unsettled but improving and drier from midweek

This mornings rain this has turned light and drizzly over WW and the SW Midlands and will clear the rest of the Midlands by the middle of Sunday afternoon. A rather windy afternoon of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy over Wales, maxima below average at 17 to 19c. Further blustery showers in places tonight, minima no lower than 11c. A rather deep Summer low is gradually crossing northern England during Monday so another disturbed day to come. Fresh to strong west winds driving through showers and some longer spells of rain, these heavy in places with the chance of a rumble of thunder. Few places expected to miss the showers on Monday and there will be some very heavy downpours for some, highs cool again at 16 to 19c (best East Midlands). The showers and strong winds set to continue in many areas throughout Monday night. Cool and showery again for Tuesday, although as the wind veers into the NW then SW Wales and the South Midlands are more sheltered with some places here escaping largely dry with sunny spells. Elsewhere though some heavy showers in places with more limited sunny intervals. Cool and quite windy, highs lucky to reach 14c over Snowdonia where showers may be frequent, 16 to 19c elsewhere. Most of the showers do die out overnight, clear spells and a decreasing wind lead to cool minima of 5 to 8c.

Cool yet again on Wednesday, bright sunny spells and scattered showers, a few of these being heavy and perhaps thundery, but more places will miss these and have a dry day. Highs just between 16 and 19c for most with a moderate NNW breeze. Wednesday night may be the coolest of the coming week, clear periods and light winds within a chilly air mass for Summer, coldest spots may even be close to a grass frost, with air minima as low as 3 to 5c, higher for towns and coasts. Hopeful that a ridge will give us a dry bright Thursday with decent sunny spells and with light winds feeling pleasant as highs increase to the 18 to 21c bracket, but cooler for some NW facing coasts (more like 16c here). Another cool and generally dry night follows possibly getting as low as 4c very locally. Its 'up in the air' from Friday really, although the signals are not suggesting great quantities of rain to end the week or into the weekend. Friday and Saturday then seems like (and bearing in mind how Friday gone turned out!) plenty of dry weather with perhaps the odd shower, temperatures higher and up to average at 19 to 23c, and there would be some pleasant sunny spells. However, this possible improvement does not look set to last as a nasty deep low could be heading towards Ireland come Sunday threatening further rain and strong winds to end the weekend!

Sunday, 19 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 20th to Sunday 26th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable with some rain at times but became mostly dry

Some showery rain for a time last Sunday, not much for most but with localised downpours such as at Pershore, Worc (19mm) while not so far away Hereford only had 1.2mm, and lightning was seen from Rugby and Warwick. Pershore was also the warmest spot in our regions as well as wettest (24.4c). Cloudy with some rain for a time on Monday, quite cool for much of damp West Wales (Aberdaron 16.3c, Llanwnnen 17.4c) but with near normal temperatures Midlands and for some coastal areas (Pershore 21.7c, Mona 18.7c). Gogerddan near Aberystwyth was the wettest place officially in the UK last Monday with a fall of 18.6mm, although a PWS (Personal Weather Station) near Machynlleth recorded around 30mm. There was further occasional patchy rain and drizzle for many of us during Tuesday but with dry periods too, and as ever some spots escaped dry. Tuesday also a mostly cloudy humid day with temperatures a touch below average, although rather warm for a few spots in NW Wales where, just beyond the rain front, it was a dry day with sunny spells (Porthmadog 20.8c, Hereford 20.7c,) but cool for southern Cardigan Bay coasts with all the damp (Aberporth 14.9c).

Dry and largely sunny then on Wednesday once the lingering cloud broke over the Midlands but a fresher feeling day, although with temperatures a touch higher over south Wales and most of the Midlands (Pershore 21.4c, Pembrey Sands 19.4c), but cooler for north and west Wales (Aberdaron 15.2c). Cool on Wednesday night down to just 3.7c at Capel Curig and 4.1c Shobdon (Herefordshire) with many rural parts below 7c (an average July night would be 11 to 13c inland). Thursday was the warmest day of the week (Pershore 24.8c, Porthmadog 24.6c) as another short-lived plume of warmth arrived from the south, some showers in places especially Pembrokeshire in the afternoon and where it was cooler as a result (Milford Haven max 18.6c)  A few showers over the Midlands during the evening but for many it stayed largely dry although it was not an especially sunny day (41.4c reached in central France on Thursday). Thursday night very mild, only falling to 16.8c at Hereford then showers for a few spots Friday but largely dry again and a cooler, fresher quite windy day (Pershore 22.0c, Llanwnnen 19.7c). Dry but breezy with sunny spells and around average temperatures Saturday (Hereford 22.3c, Llanwnnen 20.2c, Mumbles 19.5c).

The week ahead: Unsettled, breezy and often rather cool; dry, brighter intervals too

A splash of rain for most places Saturday night into this Sunday morning (it cleared WW soon after dawn) and with further occasional splashes of rain this week to keep the gardens satisfied although not so welcome for those on holiday! Worth bearing in mind that even rather below average temperatures in the Summer will feel pleasant enough given a sunny interval, so not all doom and gloom this week although when cloudy and breezy it will be feeling cool. Mostly dry this afternoon with sunny spells highs in the familiar Summer 2015 range of 18 to 22c, feeling pleasant enough although quite breezy again. Clear periods and cool tonight as low as 5c in some rural spots although it will have clouded over across SW Wales by dawn as further weather fronts arrive for Monday.  A cloudy morning with mostly light rain and drizzle at times for WW this spreading to the Midlands afternoon, although some places here stay mostly dry. Some brighter intervals raising temperatures to 23c for parts of the Midlands as we will be in a warm sector, while for WW the rain clears to a few showers and late sunny intervals, highs more like 18 to 20c here. Quite a windy day too as well as damp at times with clear spells and just the odd shower during Monday night.

Quite a lot of cloud with some sunny intervals and showers (mostly light) on Tuesday, quite windy again, highs a cool 15 to 18c WW and 19 to 21c Midlands. Some places will miss the showers. Mostly dry overnight no lower than 9c. Rather unsettled again Wednesday, after a mostly dry and bright morning it turns showery with a possible longer spell of rain during the afternoon or evening, and some of this rain could be heavy in places. Maxima a cool 15 to 18c WW and around 20c Midlands. A cool NW flow for Thursday, sunny intervals and a few showers, highs below average again at 16 to 20c (highest Midlands). Clear periods and a chilly night follows down as low as 5c in the countryside. Friday may see a ridge and offers the best chance of pleasant dry weather with sunny spells, although some models still showing some showers about, so not all of us entirely dry perhaps. Maxima still disappointing in the 16 to 20c range as the air mass is distinctly cool by the end of the week. Another cool night to follow, not far off a ground frost even for some rural spots, while temperatures at 4 feet as low as 4c.

Next weekend still looking below average but besides that the outlook less certain. Best stab is another rather mixed weekend, there should be plenty of generally dry weather with some sunshine (especially Saturday) while Sunday seems the most likely day for some rain to arrive with the potential of a wet day. The models still not showing any proper dry, warm settled Summery weather out into early August even.

Sunday, 12 July 2015

Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th July 2015

Last weeks review: Changeable but often dry with some warm sunny spells

Showers with thunder in places last Sunday, two walkers were killed by separate lightning strikes on the tops of the Brecon Beacons around midday. Morning thunderstorms and downpours gave 20mm rain in a few hours at Milford Haven. It was a cool day over NW Wales (Aberdaron max 15.2c) but elsewhere up to the July average (Llanwnnen 19.2c, Nottingham 22.4c). Rather cloudy and breezy Monday with rain and drizzle at times, especially over WW where some places saw heavy rain (Aberdaron 23.4mm), in contrast most of the Midlands saw very little. Quite cool for WW with all the cloud and rain (Capel Curig 15.3c) but near average over the Midlands (Pershore 20.6c). Another breezy sunny intervals and showers day Tuesday, thunder for a few places, some places staying largely dry and temperatures close to or a little below average (Pershore 21.7c, Llanwnnen 19.2c) but exposed Aberdaron  (max 15.1c) was cool once more.

Cool WNW winds on Wednesday, quite a lot of cloud with some showery rain in places though as usual some place escaping dry (Pershore 20.5c, Pembrey 18.1c, Capel Curig 14.7c). A dry end to the week with sunny periods on Thursday and somewhat warmer for most (Pershore 21.9c, Llanwnnen 19.8c) although still cool sea breezes around Cardigan Bay (Aberporth 15.4c). Warm rather humid southerly winds everywhere with plentiful sunshine Friday, very warm for the Midlands at above 25c (Coleshill 26.6c, Trawsgoed 24.2c, Aberdaron 19.3c).  Cloudier with a little rain in places Saturday but also some sunny spells, especially the Midlands where it was rather warm in places (Coventry 23.3c, Llanwnnen 19.5c). Quite wet during Saturday night for much of Wales (Capel Curig 24mm in 24 hours to 0600) with some light rain for the Midlands.

The week ahead: Changeable with some rain at times; drier midweek and warm Thursday into Friday

There was further rain in places during Sunday morning, but a mostly dry afternoon to come with sunny intervals, although still the odd shower for a few spots, highs 18 to 22c with light winds. A mostly dry night follows no lower than 10c. Further rain fronts arriving into Wales by dawn Monday so a rather wet start to the day here, this rain also affecting the Midlands by the mid to late morning period, some heavy bursts of rain in places. The rain tends to become more intermittent on Monday afternoon but it stays mostly cloudy, but still the occasional burst of rain or drizzle. Highs Monday again in the 18 to 22c bracket, although cooler for wetter Snowdonia more like 16 c here. Fronts remain strung out across the south of the UK throughout Monday night and Tuesday with pulses of wet weather running along these. So for some areas a wet period to come through Monday and Tuesday, 25 to 50mm quite likely to be collected within 36 hours, but quite localised these higher amounts. The exact positioning of the fronts cannot however be foretold other than to say Tuesday is another largely overcast day with rain at times, this heavy in places. Maxima Tuesday a cool 16 to 18c WW, and 20 to 22c Midlands where some brighter intervals are possible. The rain is expected to be dying out/ clearing away come Tuesday night.

A tenuous ridge of high pressure then attempts to settle things down for the midweek period, so Wednesday and Thursday seeing plenty of dry weather with warm sunny spells. Highs Wednesday 18 to 22c, although even at this stage frontal remnants could be setting off a few sharp afternoon showers for the Midlands. Wednesday night looks a cool one with clear periods, getting down to 5c in places. Thursday, and with the next Atlantic system approaching Ireland some warm humid air should be moving up from the south. The strength of this warm plume still to be decided but 26c is possible over the Midlands and with 21 to 24c likely more widely on Thursday afternoon. Some thundery rain could though be moving into Wales come Thursday evening and more likely overnight. Thursday night likely to be warm and sticky with rain at times and thunder or lightning in places, temperatures no lower than 15 to 17c.

Further rain at times is likely during Friday morning as a low crosses Scotland, still a chance of thunder for the Midlands especially if the sun breaks through to and acts to trigger off a storm. It could be another warm day too for the Midlands, possibly up to 25c across the East Midlands, but a cold front should be clearing the sticky air from WW during Friday morning and a cooler day here with some showers about during the afternoon, highs here more like 17 to 20c but there should be some sunny intervals pm. Next weekend looks another inauspicious and mixed one as Summer 2015 plods on with its mediocrity! Saturday at this stage looking cool but bright with some showers while Sunday is harder to guess but still a chance of rain or showers for some of us.