Last weeks highlights
A cool, unsettled and windy start to last week, last Sunday inspite of sunny intervals in the afternoon nowhere managed higher than 15c. A few heavy showers with hail and thunder affected parts of Wales late Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, sheet lightning from an active little storm heading inland from Aberystwyth was observed from Llanwnnen some 25 miles away just before midnight. Chilly Sunday night, 2.2c the low at Shobdon, Herefordshire with a grass frost here and in Shropshire.
It became unseasonably cool, wet and windy during Monday, particularly over West Wales (WW) where it ended up really wild with heavy rain, although only a little rain for the sheltered SE Midlands. Around an inch of rain fell over much of Wales and temperatures not bettering 14c anywhere, very poor for the 1st of June (max Aberdaron 10.7c, Pershore 13.9c, wettest Capel Curig 60mm, Trawsgoed 37.4mm, Llanwnnen 27.6mm, in contrast Evesham 1mm). Selected max wind gusts for Monday: Capel Curig 78mph, Aberdaron 74mph, Pembrey 66mph, Llanwnnen 45mph, some trees blown down, one onto a parked car in Swansea (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-32970911 ). The low bringing all of this as it crossed northern Scotland was one of the deepest UK depressions on record for June as pressure dropped to 973mbar at Tiree, Hebrides (UKWW June 1st deep low discussion ).
RAF Mona 131.2mm
Trawsgoed c. 119mm
Llanwnnen 95.7mm 124%
Hereford 76.8mm 150%
Coleshill 53.6mm 101%
Coventry, Bablake 72.4mm
Long Lawford 65.1mm 113%
Church Lawford 64.0mm 111%
Some Spring rainfall totals;
Llanwnnen 197.8mm 83%
Hinckley, Leic. 149.5mm
Coventry, Bablake School 141.6mm
Long Lawford 115.9mm 80%
The week ahead
Plenty of fine and dry, if not especially warm weather to come this week and less of that cool breeze, the best of the sunshine for WW. It does though look like turning unsettled with some rain at times from Friday into the weekend. Another very cool one last night, down to 2c in places (Llanwnnen 2.2c) with a touch of ground frost very locally. Dry with sunny spells then this Sunday afternoon, a cool NNW breeze and highs between 15 and 18c. Clear periods tonight, another chilly one with a grass frost in a few spots, temperatures in the air down generally between 2 and 5c inland.
A nice strong high centred over or close to Ireland through to Wednesday so similar weather up to then, basically dry with sunny spells, sunny mornings and evenings, with areas of cloud developing during the afternoons, particularly over the Midlands where threatening an isolated light shower perhaps. The flow is from the NE and still quite cool so maxima only likely to be in the 15 to 19c range, it may be a touch warmer though by Wednesday as the high orientates more favourably? Largely clear skies by nights means these will be distinctly cool and threaten further grass frost in some areas, minima for most 1 to 4c, but milder for most coasts and town centres, dawn valley mist is possible also. Winds only light to moderate through this period.
The high looks like pulling back west into the Atlantic during Thursday but this should be another mostly dry and fine day and a bit warmer as we should lose the North Sea influence so a chance of 22c (72f) in places with the warm sunny spells. By Friday we are seeing a weak cold front moving into Scotland while at the same time a thundery low is close by over the near Continent, this containing warm air. The outcome of all this seems that it turns unsettled in time for the weekend and that we are likely to remain on the wrong side of the Continental warmth. Some bands of rain edging north during Friday, so some areas may end up cool and rather wet, with others escaping with little if any, it would be a very cool day where cloudy and wet, no higher than 13c, although where it brightens up to 18c (the relevant areas cannot be pinned down at this early forecasting stage).
The jury is out regards next weekend but it does look at least somewhat unsettled and there is the threat of some wet periods (potentially with a lot of rain in places) as energetic lows are close to the south at times, in this scenario the wet zones would be very cool, no better than 13c. On the other hand it may not turn out so bad being more a case of sunny intervals and a few showers, in any event it is likely to be on the cool side although with any sunshine it would get close to average (17 to 20c). Aleady indications are that June will end up quite a cool month with more uninspiring charts appearing in the further outlook so certainly no 'Flaming June' again this year!