Sunday, 28 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 29th June to Sunday 5th July 2015

Headline: Warm to hot with sunny spells and the chance of thunderstorms

Last weeks review: Mostly dry and rather warm with some sunny spells

Rather cool and breezy last Sunday and Monday, South Wales and the far north of Wales being wet on Sunday night, half an inch in places, elsewhere mostly dry just the odd shower these mostly over the East Midlands on Monday afternoon. Clear and very chilly Monday night across West Wales (WW) down to +1.7c in our Llanwnnen garden cold spot, with nearby Tirabad (Powys) 3.1c and Trawgoed (Ceredigion) 3.4c the official lows. Warm sunny spells on Tuesday (Hereford 22.6c, Llanwnnen 20.4c) but cooler for most coasts (Valley, Anglesey max 15.7c). Best of the sunny spells over the Midlands Wednesday, WW clouded over with a little rain afternoon for NW Wales, most other places remained dry and the Midlands quite warm with many places getting above 21c (Coventry 22.0c) but cool for cloudier NW Wales (Capel Curig 14.2c max).

Rather warm with sunny intervals again Thursday (Hereford 23.8c, Llanwnnen 22.0c). Mild Thursday night, no lower than 15c in places (Pembrey 15.4c) then more cloud with rain in places Friday although WW managed quite a warm sunny end to the day (Shobdon 21.9c, Llanwnnen 20.8c). Generally dry and quite warm but breezy with sunny intervals Saturday most of the Midlands over 22c (Pershore 23.4c, Llanwnnen 20.6c, Aberporth 19.5c).

The week ahead

It is likely that we are about to experience the hottest spell of weather since 2006, some places should top 30c in the middle of the week with parts of the Midlands possibly hitting 32c 90f! Along with the heat comes a risk of thunderstorms although not everywhere will get these and some places may have a mostly dry and very warm week. At some stages the models of the past week have been showing near record breaking heat to come over the UK of up to 36c over southern England with temperatures reaching above 30c for 4 or 5 successive days even over the Midlands, however, they have toned down the heat over the recent days and such a dangerously prolonged hot scenario is not now likely. Cities on the near Continent such as Paris on the other hand may reach 38c 100f this week while the hottest parts of Spain could well top 46c 115f!

A welcome drop of rain during Saturday night and Sunday morning (half an inch in a few spots) is much needed given this rather dry June and impending hot spell. Drying out this Sunday afternoon with the sun coming out and reasonably warm highs 18 to 21c, but a breezy day. Dry with clear spells tonight and pleasantly cool for sleep - so make the most of it! A ridge for Monday dry with sunny spells and another rather warm day max 20 to 23c (best Midlands), a moderate SSW breeze. Weak fronts clouding WW over later with a little rain possible in places during Monday evening. A few spots of rain for WW too on Monday night but a very mild night no lower than 15c here and 13c for the Midlands where it should remain dry.

The very warm air originating from North Africa will be arriving during the course of Tuesday which is dry with sunny periods, maxima between 26 and 29c (79 to 84f), even the coasts seeing high temperatures. Pressure falling during Wednesday night as a thundery low moves up from the south so some of us getting a thunderstorm or lightning display, more especially these for Wales. A very warm sticky night minima between 15 and 19c.  Wednesday should be the peak of the heat and have the greatest risk of thunderstorms. Spells of hazy sunshine and a hot day then with moderate breezes, highs between 28 and 31c widely, with parts of the Midlands hitting 32c no doubt! A scattering of showers and thunderstorms is likely as we go through the day, but hit and miss affairs these. Perhaps a cooler night after any storms down to 12c in places.

The air is less warm on Thursday and perhaps also Friday which will be mostly dry with sunny spells and more bearable though still warm temperatures of 22 to 26c and with refreshing sea breezes for western coasts, just the outside chance of a shower but a dry couple of days for the vast majority. Comfortable for sleep Thursday night as it may even fall below 10c in the countryside.  Friday may see things hotting up again so back into the low 80s f (27c+) perhaps for the Midlands and becoming humid once more? A chance of some thundery showers during Friday night which is set to be a warm sticky one, min 15 to 18c.

This second heat plume may last into Saturday with no doubt lightning, torrential downpours and even large hail causing problems locally. Temperatures if the plume hangs on again topping 27c, potentially even 30c across the Midlands although WW may have cooled to a more temperate max 21c or so by this stage. A long way off with a lot of weather to gauge in the meantime, but next Sunday is looking cooler and fresher for all with some showers which we should be finding a welcome relief!

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