Sunday, 21 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th June 2015

Headline: Often dry and quite warm with sunny spells; some sporadic rain from Friday

Last week was mostly dry with some sunny spells:

Cool last Sunday none more so than at Aberporth only 12.5c max with the wind blowing off a chill Cardigan Bay, in contrast at Mumbles where the wind blew off land it reached an up to average 18.6c, most places saw 15 to 17c max. Better for Monday, dry with some sunshine and generally warmer (Hereford 20.5c, Llanwnnen 19.4c, Milford Haven 18.3c) still a bit of a struggle around Cardigan Bay though (Aberporth 15.4c). Some warm sunny spells on Tuesday too, many parts of the Midlands reaching 22c (Pershore 22.9c, Coventry 22.7c) but rather cool again along some exposed western coasts (Aberdaron 14.7c) although it was quite warm inland (Llanwnnen 20.8c). Warm and humid although rather cloudy over the Midlands and parts of Mid and West Wales on Wednesday (Hereford & Pershore 22.9c, Llanwnnen 22.4c, Aberporth 20.4c) but cooler for NW Wales (Aberdaron 14.4c) with some rain which spread to some other areas during the evening but was generally only light and patchy. The south coast of Wales also cool and in places misty (Mumbles 14.5c).

The weak cold front that brought Wednesdays light rain brought cooler conditions for Thursday which was a dry bright day (Pershore 20.4c) the south coast of Wales was actually warmer being sheltered from the NNW breeze (Mumbles 17.8c) but exposed Cardigan Bay very chilly (Swyddffynnon 13.2c). Mostly dry Friday too the cloud breaking to sunny spells afternoon, temperatures in most places around or slightly below average but Cardigan Bay cool again (Pershore 22.2c, Pembrey Sands 19.7c, Aberporth 13.9c).  Some rather warm humid air on Saturday (Hereford 22.9c, Llanwnnen 21.5c) with a scattering of showers with some thunderstorms over parts of the Midlands giving localised torrential downpours ( Little Rissington, Glos 11.2mm). A few spots escaped with no measurable rain in the past week.

The week ahead

Some rain or showers from time to time this week but again a lot of dry bright and quite warm weather to be had and after Monday which will be cool with a few showers. Sunday afternoon sees sunny intervals, a few showers scattered about and breezy with cool highs of 15 to 18c. A frontal system set to cross southern areas during Sunday night into Monday but hard to judge the northern extent. The latest models suggest that the rain only skirts the far SW of Wales and that most of us remain largely dry overnight, however as previous model runs had the rain extending as far as Aberystwyth and Coventry then there is still the possibility that some other more southern areas turn rather wet tonight into Monday morning.  Any lingering rain Monday clears by midday and it brightens afternoon to sunny intervals and some showers, maxima 15 to 18c, with a cool NNW breeze then a cool clearing night follows down to just 5c locally.

A ridge of high pressure for Tuesday so a mostly dry day with sunny spells and light winds, highs 19 to 22c, an isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out though. Pressure remains relatively high over southern UK during Wednesday and Thursday too so plenty more dry and warm weather midweek. Warm sunny spells then Wednesday temperatures reaching 20 to 23c quite widely, although cooling sea breezes for many coasts. However its rarely plain sailing with the British weather and there will be weak fronts within the high producing larger areas of cloud and which may set off the odd shower in places afternoon or evening. The dry fine and warm conditions should last for Thursday too with highs of 21 to 25c inland, however Atlantic fronts could be bringing some showery rain and increasing winds to WW during the night.

Rain fronts may well extend across the Midlands on Friday although here they should weaken to give just a few showers, perhaps heavy, and it will be another rather warm day, highs perhaps 24c where the sun breaks through, but a cooler 17c or so for much of WW where further albeit mostly light rain in places could occur along with plenty of cloud. With high pressure over the near Continent next weekend at least will be in quite warm humid air from the SW, however lows will be passing NW of the UK and could be extending further fronts east over us. A mixed rather changeable bag seems likely with some dry warm weather, this more likely Saturday and especially for the Midlands where 24c could be reached again, but equally some more rain coming through on fronts, with Sunday perhaps most likely to see any wet weather but its too far ahead to foretell precise developments and timings of such things.  It may well become quite windy at times too next weekend due to this anticipated rather unsettled theme.

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