Sunday, 14 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st June 2015

Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells, temperatures around average and perhaps warm midweek; a few showers possible Wednesday onwards

Last weeks review

Lovely and sunny but rather cool and breezy weather last Sunday, almost unbroken sunshine gave an estimated 14 hours here at Llanwnnen, many places having similar sunshine amounts. More sheltered areas scraped the June average temperature-wise, but decidedly cool for early Summer along Cardigan Bay with the wind off a sea that is still only a chill 11c (Pershore 19.1c, Mumbles 18c, Aberporth 12.8c). Dawn Monday saw the lowest June temperature I have recorded in this area (or anywhere else) with a frosty minimum of -1.0c, colder than any official UK weather station except Katesbridge in Northern Ireland (-1.9c).  Many rural areas fell below 4c on Sunday night with a fairly widespread grass frost (Trawsgoed +0.7c, Shobdon 1.1c) but much less cool for coasts and cities (Mumbles min 9.3c, Nottingham 7.3c).

Monday again almost unbroken sunshine for Wales, although the north breeze made it quite cool, especially cool again for exposed coasts of NW Wales and Cardigan Bay (Aberporth & Aberdaron max 12.4c) only well sheltered spots such as the south coast of Wales were up to average (Pershore 18.5c, Mumbles 17.5c). The Midlands became rather cloudy with the odd shower during Monday afternoon/ evening. Another widespread ground frost for rural inland areas on Monday night (coldest Capel Curig 2.2c, Pershore 2.3c). The best of the sun across WW on Tuesday, cool and cloudy at times over the Midlands with the wind having shifted round to the NE coming from off a cold North Sea (Porthmadog 18.6c, Llanwnnen 18.5c, Shawbury & Hereford 15.8c, Little Rissington just max 14c). Yet another rather widespread rural ground frost Tuesday night as well (Llanwnnen +0.4c, Trawsgoed 0.7c, Shobdon 0.8c).

Unbroken sunshine over Ceredigion on Wednesday, as it was no doubt for other parts of WW, a rather warm day too for many places (Llanwnnen & Porthmadog 20.7c, Aberporth 15.9c). The cloud eventually broke to give sunny spells for the Midlands afternoon but with temperatures still a little below normal (Shawbury 17.6c, Little Rissington 15.3c). Warmer tropical air arrived during Thursday this bringing a lot of cloud to WW but a pleasant change to sunny conditions for the Midlands, many places reached 21 to 24c on Thursday (Llanwnnen 23.9c, Pershore 23.6c, Aberporth 18.4c). A mild night followed with the Swansea area warmest (Mumbles min 15.7c), then a rather cloudy but rather warm and humid Friday (Trawsgoed 23.5c, Church Lawford 21.8c). The South Midlands somewhat cooler though as it soon turned damp in places, this rain extending to much of the Midlands during the afternoon and South and Mid Wales during the evening, some torrential downpours in places.

The rain continued on and off during Friday night and well into Saturday giving 2 inches for parts of the Midlands while in contrast the far north of Wales remained largely dry (24 hour totals Hinckley 53.3mm, Nottingham 47mm, Church Lawford, Warks 27mm, Milford Haven, Pembs 20.2mm) The warmer interlude all too brief once more however and this weekend has seen a considerable cool down with the rain, the temperature some 10c lower on Saturday afternoon than it was on Friday afternoon here at Llanwnnen (day max just 11.3c Aberporth)

A notably cold frosty June dawn

The week ahead

Plenty of dry weather with some sunny spells in the coming week, there will be the odd splash of chiefly light rain as occasional weak fronts come though from Wednesday onwards but at least 90% of the time it will be still be dry! Temperatures although rather warm at times never really deviate more than a couple of degrees from the mid- late June average (17 to 21c)

Quite a lot of cloud with some sunny intervals this Sunday afternoon, a few light light showers over the Midlands, rather cool highs between 15 and 18c with light north breezes. Largely dry with clear spells tonight, cool mins 3 to 6c. A ridge on Monday, dry with sunny spells and warmer, max 17 to 20c with light winds, so quite a nice day. Clear spells Monday night and rather cool. Still a ridge over us for Tuesday so another dry day with sunny spells, highs mostly 18 to 21c but some west facing coasts suffering mist and cooling breezes and so no higher than 16c where this occurs. Dry and a milder Tuesday night.

High pressure still close to our SW during Wednesday but some troublesome weak fronts are crossing the UK these eventually bringing attendant areas of cloud and patchy light rain to southern UK. The air is warmer during Wednesday so with sunny spells the Midlands in particular warms up to 22 or 23c, more like 19c for SW Wales and just 17c for the NW of Wales where it will be clouding over. Fronts then edging down later in the day and overnight should weaken enough to bring for most just a band of cloud to end the day but with chiefly light rain in places, more especially over Snowdonia this. We may well be in slightly cooler air by Thursday as the weak cold front clears through but largely dry again with high pressure being close enough to the WSW, although probably a cloudier more breezy day but with sunny intervals. Highs Thursday 16 to 19c, perhaps a 20c for the more sheltered SE Midlands and south coast of Wales where the cloud breaks up better.

High pressure always quite close to our west or SW even to end the week so plenty more dry weather to come during Friday and even next weekend. However the high may well relinquish enough for further weak fronts to bring a small drop of rain from time to time, whilst between these frontal bands conditions may be slack and warm enough with the sunny intervals and lowered pressure to permit the odd sharp shower, but 90% of the time it is expected to be dry Friday to Sunday! Maxima always around average through this period say between 17 and 22c with mild enough nights.

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