Sunday, 28 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 29th June to Sunday 5th July 2015

Headline: Warm to hot with sunny spells and the chance of thunderstorms

Last weeks review: Mostly dry and rather warm with some sunny spells

Rather cool and breezy last Sunday and Monday, South Wales and the far north of Wales being wet on Sunday night, half an inch in places, elsewhere mostly dry just the odd shower these mostly over the East Midlands on Monday afternoon. Clear and very chilly Monday night across West Wales (WW) down to +1.7c in our Llanwnnen garden cold spot, with nearby Tirabad (Powys) 3.1c and Trawgoed (Ceredigion) 3.4c the official lows. Warm sunny spells on Tuesday (Hereford 22.6c, Llanwnnen 20.4c) but cooler for most coasts (Valley, Anglesey max 15.7c). Best of the sunny spells over the Midlands Wednesday, WW clouded over with a little rain afternoon for NW Wales, most other places remained dry and the Midlands quite warm with many places getting above 21c (Coventry 22.0c) but cool for cloudier NW Wales (Capel Curig 14.2c max).

Rather warm with sunny intervals again Thursday (Hereford 23.8c, Llanwnnen 22.0c). Mild Thursday night, no lower than 15c in places (Pembrey 15.4c) then more cloud with rain in places Friday although WW managed quite a warm sunny end to the day (Shobdon 21.9c, Llanwnnen 20.8c). Generally dry and quite warm but breezy with sunny intervals Saturday most of the Midlands over 22c (Pershore 23.4c, Llanwnnen 20.6c, Aberporth 19.5c).

The week ahead

It is likely that we are about to experience the hottest spell of weather since 2006, some places should top 30c in the middle of the week with parts of the Midlands possibly hitting 32c 90f! Along with the heat comes a risk of thunderstorms although not everywhere will get these and some places may have a mostly dry and very warm week. At some stages the models of the past week have been showing near record breaking heat to come over the UK of up to 36c over southern England with temperatures reaching above 30c for 4 or 5 successive days even over the Midlands, however, they have toned down the heat over the recent days and such a dangerously prolonged hot scenario is not now likely. Cities on the near Continent such as Paris on the other hand may reach 38c 100f this week while the hottest parts of Spain could well top 46c 115f!

A welcome drop of rain during Saturday night and Sunday morning (half an inch in a few spots) is much needed given this rather dry June and impending hot spell. Drying out this Sunday afternoon with the sun coming out and reasonably warm highs 18 to 21c, but a breezy day. Dry with clear spells tonight and pleasantly cool for sleep - so make the most of it! A ridge for Monday dry with sunny spells and another rather warm day max 20 to 23c (best Midlands), a moderate SSW breeze. Weak fronts clouding WW over later with a little rain possible in places during Monday evening. A few spots of rain for WW too on Monday night but a very mild night no lower than 15c here and 13c for the Midlands where it should remain dry.

The very warm air originating from North Africa will be arriving during the course of Tuesday which is dry with sunny periods, maxima between 26 and 29c (79 to 84f), even the coasts seeing high temperatures. Pressure falling during Wednesday night as a thundery low moves up from the south so some of us getting a thunderstorm or lightning display, more especially these for Wales. A very warm sticky night minima between 15 and 19c.  Wednesday should be the peak of the heat and have the greatest risk of thunderstorms. Spells of hazy sunshine and a hot day then with moderate breezes, highs between 28 and 31c widely, with parts of the Midlands hitting 32c no doubt! A scattering of showers and thunderstorms is likely as we go through the day, but hit and miss affairs these. Perhaps a cooler night after any storms down to 12c in places.

The air is less warm on Thursday and perhaps also Friday which will be mostly dry with sunny spells and more bearable though still warm temperatures of 22 to 26c and with refreshing sea breezes for western coasts, just the outside chance of a shower but a dry couple of days for the vast majority. Comfortable for sleep Thursday night as it may even fall below 10c in the countryside.  Friday may see things hotting up again so back into the low 80s f (27c+) perhaps for the Midlands and becoming humid once more? A chance of some thundery showers during Friday night which is set to be a warm sticky one, min 15 to 18c.

This second heat plume may last into Saturday with no doubt lightning, torrential downpours and even large hail causing problems locally. Temperatures if the plume hangs on again topping 27c, potentially even 30c across the Midlands although WW may have cooled to a more temperate max 21c or so by this stage. A long way off with a lot of weather to gauge in the meantime, but next Sunday is looking cooler and fresher for all with some showers which we should be finding a welcome relief!

Sunday, 21 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th June 2015

Headline: Often dry and quite warm with sunny spells; some sporadic rain from Friday

Last week was mostly dry with some sunny spells:

Cool last Sunday none more so than at Aberporth only 12.5c max with the wind blowing off a chill Cardigan Bay, in contrast at Mumbles where the wind blew off land it reached an up to average 18.6c, most places saw 15 to 17c max. Better for Monday, dry with some sunshine and generally warmer (Hereford 20.5c, Llanwnnen 19.4c, Milford Haven 18.3c) still a bit of a struggle around Cardigan Bay though (Aberporth 15.4c). Some warm sunny spells on Tuesday too, many parts of the Midlands reaching 22c (Pershore 22.9c, Coventry 22.7c) but rather cool again along some exposed western coasts (Aberdaron 14.7c) although it was quite warm inland (Llanwnnen 20.8c). Warm and humid although rather cloudy over the Midlands and parts of Mid and West Wales on Wednesday (Hereford & Pershore 22.9c, Llanwnnen 22.4c, Aberporth 20.4c) but cooler for NW Wales (Aberdaron 14.4c) with some rain which spread to some other areas during the evening but was generally only light and patchy. The south coast of Wales also cool and in places misty (Mumbles 14.5c).

The weak cold front that brought Wednesdays light rain brought cooler conditions for Thursday which was a dry bright day (Pershore 20.4c) the south coast of Wales was actually warmer being sheltered from the NNW breeze (Mumbles 17.8c) but exposed Cardigan Bay very chilly (Swyddffynnon 13.2c). Mostly dry Friday too the cloud breaking to sunny spells afternoon, temperatures in most places around or slightly below average but Cardigan Bay cool again (Pershore 22.2c, Pembrey Sands 19.7c, Aberporth 13.9c).  Some rather warm humid air on Saturday (Hereford 22.9c, Llanwnnen 21.5c) with a scattering of showers with some thunderstorms over parts of the Midlands giving localised torrential downpours ( Little Rissington, Glos 11.2mm). A few spots escaped with no measurable rain in the past week.

The week ahead

Some rain or showers from time to time this week but again a lot of dry bright and quite warm weather to be had and after Monday which will be cool with a few showers. Sunday afternoon sees sunny intervals, a few showers scattered about and breezy with cool highs of 15 to 18c. A frontal system set to cross southern areas during Sunday night into Monday but hard to judge the northern extent. The latest models suggest that the rain only skirts the far SW of Wales and that most of us remain largely dry overnight, however as previous model runs had the rain extending as far as Aberystwyth and Coventry then there is still the possibility that some other more southern areas turn rather wet tonight into Monday morning.  Any lingering rain Monday clears by midday and it brightens afternoon to sunny intervals and some showers, maxima 15 to 18c, with a cool NNW breeze then a cool clearing night follows down to just 5c locally.

A ridge of high pressure for Tuesday so a mostly dry day with sunny spells and light winds, highs 19 to 22c, an isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out though. Pressure remains relatively high over southern UK during Wednesday and Thursday too so plenty more dry and warm weather midweek. Warm sunny spells then Wednesday temperatures reaching 20 to 23c quite widely, although cooling sea breezes for many coasts. However its rarely plain sailing with the British weather and there will be weak fronts within the high producing larger areas of cloud and which may set off the odd shower in places afternoon or evening. The dry fine and warm conditions should last for Thursday too with highs of 21 to 25c inland, however Atlantic fronts could be bringing some showery rain and increasing winds to WW during the night.

Rain fronts may well extend across the Midlands on Friday although here they should weaken to give just a few showers, perhaps heavy, and it will be another rather warm day, highs perhaps 24c where the sun breaks through, but a cooler 17c or so for much of WW where further albeit mostly light rain in places could occur along with plenty of cloud. With high pressure over the near Continent next weekend at least will be in quite warm humid air from the SW, however lows will be passing NW of the UK and could be extending further fronts east over us. A mixed rather changeable bag seems likely with some dry warm weather, this more likely Saturday and especially for the Midlands where 24c could be reached again, but equally some more rain coming through on fronts, with Sunday perhaps most likely to see any wet weather but its too far ahead to foretell precise developments and timings of such things.  It may well become quite windy at times too next weekend due to this anticipated rather unsettled theme.

Sunday, 14 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st June 2015

Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells, temperatures around average and perhaps warm midweek; a few showers possible Wednesday onwards

Last weeks review

Lovely and sunny but rather cool and breezy weather last Sunday, almost unbroken sunshine gave an estimated 14 hours here at Llanwnnen, many places having similar sunshine amounts. More sheltered areas scraped the June average temperature-wise, but decidedly cool for early Summer along Cardigan Bay with the wind off a sea that is still only a chill 11c (Pershore 19.1c, Mumbles 18c, Aberporth 12.8c). Dawn Monday saw the lowest June temperature I have recorded in this area (or anywhere else) with a frosty minimum of -1.0c, colder than any official UK weather station except Katesbridge in Northern Ireland (-1.9c).  Many rural areas fell below 4c on Sunday night with a fairly widespread grass frost (Trawsgoed +0.7c, Shobdon 1.1c) but much less cool for coasts and cities (Mumbles min 9.3c, Nottingham 7.3c).

Monday again almost unbroken sunshine for Wales, although the north breeze made it quite cool, especially cool again for exposed coasts of NW Wales and Cardigan Bay (Aberporth & Aberdaron max 12.4c) only well sheltered spots such as the south coast of Wales were up to average (Pershore 18.5c, Mumbles 17.5c). The Midlands became rather cloudy with the odd shower during Monday afternoon/ evening. Another widespread ground frost for rural inland areas on Monday night (coldest Capel Curig 2.2c, Pershore 2.3c). The best of the sun across WW on Tuesday, cool and cloudy at times over the Midlands with the wind having shifted round to the NE coming from off a cold North Sea (Porthmadog 18.6c, Llanwnnen 18.5c, Shawbury & Hereford 15.8c, Little Rissington just max 14c). Yet another rather widespread rural ground frost Tuesday night as well (Llanwnnen +0.4c, Trawsgoed 0.7c, Shobdon 0.8c).

Unbroken sunshine over Ceredigion on Wednesday, as it was no doubt for other parts of WW, a rather warm day too for many places (Llanwnnen & Porthmadog 20.7c, Aberporth 15.9c). The cloud eventually broke to give sunny spells for the Midlands afternoon but with temperatures still a little below normal (Shawbury 17.6c, Little Rissington 15.3c). Warmer tropical air arrived during Thursday this bringing a lot of cloud to WW but a pleasant change to sunny conditions for the Midlands, many places reached 21 to 24c on Thursday (Llanwnnen 23.9c, Pershore 23.6c, Aberporth 18.4c). A mild night followed with the Swansea area warmest (Mumbles min 15.7c), then a rather cloudy but rather warm and humid Friday (Trawsgoed 23.5c, Church Lawford 21.8c). The South Midlands somewhat cooler though as it soon turned damp in places, this rain extending to much of the Midlands during the afternoon and South and Mid Wales during the evening, some torrential downpours in places.

The rain continued on and off during Friday night and well into Saturday giving 2 inches for parts of the Midlands while in contrast the far north of Wales remained largely dry (24 hour totals Hinckley 53.3mm, Nottingham 47mm, Church Lawford, Warks 27mm, Milford Haven, Pembs 20.2mm) The warmer interlude all too brief once more however and this weekend has seen a considerable cool down with the rain, the temperature some 10c lower on Saturday afternoon than it was on Friday afternoon here at Llanwnnen (day max just 11.3c Aberporth)

A notably cold frosty June dawn

The week ahead

Plenty of dry weather with some sunny spells in the coming week, there will be the odd splash of chiefly light rain as occasional weak fronts come though from Wednesday onwards but at least 90% of the time it will be still be dry! Temperatures although rather warm at times never really deviate more than a couple of degrees from the mid- late June average (17 to 21c)

Quite a lot of cloud with some sunny intervals this Sunday afternoon, a few light light showers over the Midlands, rather cool highs between 15 and 18c with light north breezes. Largely dry with clear spells tonight, cool mins 3 to 6c. A ridge on Monday, dry with sunny spells and warmer, max 17 to 20c with light winds, so quite a nice day. Clear spells Monday night and rather cool. Still a ridge over us for Tuesday so another dry day with sunny spells, highs mostly 18 to 21c but some west facing coasts suffering mist and cooling breezes and so no higher than 16c where this occurs. Dry and a milder Tuesday night.

High pressure still close to our SW during Wednesday but some troublesome weak fronts are crossing the UK these eventually bringing attendant areas of cloud and patchy light rain to southern UK. The air is warmer during Wednesday so with sunny spells the Midlands in particular warms up to 22 or 23c, more like 19c for SW Wales and just 17c for the NW of Wales where it will be clouding over. Fronts then edging down later in the day and overnight should weaken enough to bring for most just a band of cloud to end the day but with chiefly light rain in places, more especially over Snowdonia this. We may well be in slightly cooler air by Thursday as the weak cold front clears through but largely dry again with high pressure being close enough to the WSW, although probably a cloudier more breezy day but with sunny intervals. Highs Thursday 16 to 19c, perhaps a 20c for the more sheltered SE Midlands and south coast of Wales where the cloud breaks up better.

High pressure always quite close to our west or SW even to end the week so plenty more dry weather to come during Friday and even next weekend. However the high may well relinquish enough for further weak fronts to bring a small drop of rain from time to time, whilst between these frontal bands conditions may be slack and warm enough with the sunny intervals and lowered pressure to permit the odd sharp shower, but 90% of the time it is expected to be dry Friday to Sunday! Maxima always around average through this period say between 17 and 22c with mild enough nights.

Sunday, 7 June 2015

Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th June 2015

Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells to Thursday, turning more unsettled and potentially wet in places from Friday; cool to average temperatures

Last weeks highlights

A cool, unsettled and windy start to last week, last Sunday inspite of sunny intervals in the afternoon nowhere managed higher than 15c. A few heavy showers with hail and thunder affected parts of Wales late Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, sheet lightning from an active little storm heading inland from Aberystwyth was observed from Llanwnnen some 25 miles away just before midnight. Chilly Sunday night, 2.2c the low at Shobdon, Herefordshire with a grass frost here and in Shropshire.

It became unseasonably cool, wet and windy during Monday, particularly over West Wales (WW) where it ended up really wild with heavy rain, although only a little rain for the sheltered SE Midlands. Around an inch of rain fell over much of Wales and temperatures not bettering 14c anywhere, very poor for the 1st of June (max Aberdaron 10.7c, Pershore 13.9c, wettest Capel Curig 60mm, Trawsgoed 37.4mm, Llanwnnen 27.6mm, in contrast Evesham 1mm). Selected max wind gusts for Monday: Capel Curig 78mph, Aberdaron 74mph, Pembrey 66mph, Llanwnnen 45mph, some trees blown down, one onto a parked car in Swansea ( ). The low bringing all of this as it crossed northern Scotland was one of the deepest UK depressions on record for June as pressure dropped to 973mbar at Tiree, Hebrides (UKWW June 1st deep low discussion ).

The rain cleared to a few showers Tuesday, quite windy again, but temperatures higher (Coleshill 19.5c, Trawsgoed 15.8c, Capel Curig 13c). Fine, dry weather through Wednesday which was still though a cool day for many (Coleshill 18.5c, Llanwnnen 16.9c, Aberdaron 13.2c). Clear and very cool Wednesday night with localised grass frost in a few spots (lowest in the air Tirabad +0.8c, Shobdon 2.1c). Thursday which was warm and sunny, 20c reached for the first time at Coventry (max 21.5c), the latest occasion since records began in 1892. Most inland places likewise topped 20c some even 21c (70f) for the first time this year (Pershore 22.1c, Llanwnnen 21.6c, Aberdaron 16c). 

A plume of very warm air flirted with  SE England on Friday but the heat remained over on the near Continent with 34c (93f) in Paris, Belgium and Holland! The Midlands managed another rather warm day though before a cold front arrived afternoon dropping the temperature sharply, while for WW the cold front with a little rain had cooled it off during the morning so maxima were quite low in spite of the afternoon sun, in fact many parts of WW were cooler for a time in the afternoon than they were during the previous night (Nottingham 23.3c, Coventry 23.1c, coolest max Aberdaron 15.1c). Mostly dry and bright Saturday but back to being rather cool and breezy (Pershore 17.7c, Llanwnnen 16.4c, Capel Curig 12c).

Max wind gusts Wales Monday 1st June

May 2015 highlights

May was a dull, cool and wet month for the majority of places. All the cloud did however restrict the late Season frosts that can occur in May, with only the occasional grass frost even in this prone spot at Llanwnnen. Warmth also limited to just the odd day here and there, many places failed to reach 20c. It was the dullest May in Coventry since 2007.

Some May rainfall totals:

RAF Mona 131.2mm
Trawsgoed c. 119mm
Llanwnnen 95.7mm 124%
Aberporth c. 67mm 
Pembrey Sands 103.6mm 149%
Hereford 76.8mm 150%
Coleshill 53.6mm 101%
Hinckley 76.5mm
Coventry, Bablake 72.4mm
Long Lawford 65.1mm 113%
Church Lawford 64.0mm 111%

Spring 2015 highlights

A very average March, dry and warm April then unsettled and quite cool May, we were spared any real extremes this Season, no snow, storms, floods, nor widespread damaging late frosts nor droughts. Overall temperatures averaged out near normal, sunshine was above average and it was quite a dry Spring almost everywhere.

Some Spring rainfall totals;

Llanwnnen 197.8mm 83%
Hinckley, Leic. 149.5mm
Coventry, Bablake School 141.6mm
Long Lawford 115.9mm 80%

The week ahead

Plenty of fine and dry, if not especially warm weather to come this week and less of that cool breeze, the best of the sunshine for WW. It does though look like turning unsettled with some rain at times from Friday into the weekend. Another very cool one last night, down to 2c in places (Llanwnnen 2.2c) with a touch of ground frost very locally. Dry with sunny spells then this Sunday afternoon, a cool NNW breeze and highs between 15 and 18c. Clear periods tonight, another chilly one with a grass frost in a few spots, temperatures in the air down generally between 2 and 5c inland.

A nice strong high centred over or close to Ireland through to Wednesday so similar weather up to then, basically dry with sunny spells, sunny mornings and evenings, with areas of cloud developing during the afternoons, particularly over the Midlands where threatening an isolated light shower perhaps. The flow is from the NE and still quite cool so maxima only likely to be in the 15 to 19c range, it may be a touch warmer though by Wednesday as the high orientates more favourably? Largely clear skies by nights means these will be distinctly cool and threaten further grass frost in some areas, minima for most 1 to 4c, but milder for most coasts and town centres, dawn valley mist is possible also. Winds only light to moderate through this period.

The high looks like pulling back west into the Atlantic during Thursday but this should be another mostly dry and fine day and a bit warmer as we should lose the North Sea influence so a chance of 22c (72f) in places with the warm sunny spells. By Friday we are seeing a weak cold front moving into Scotland while at the same time a thundery low is close by over the near Continent, this containing warm air. The outcome of all this seems that it turns unsettled in time for the weekend and that we are likely to remain on the wrong side of the Continental warmth.  Some bands of rain edging north during Friday, so some areas may end up cool and rather wet, with others escaping with little if any, it would be a very cool day where cloudy and wet, no higher than 13c, although where it brightens up to 18c  (the relevant areas cannot be pinned down at this early forecasting stage).

The jury is out regards next weekend but it does look at least somewhat unsettled and there is the threat of some wet periods (potentially with a lot of rain in places) as energetic lows are close to the south at times, in this scenario the wet zones would be very cool, no better than 13c. On the other hand it may not turn out so bad being more a case of sunny intervals and a few showers, in any event it is likely to be on the cool side although with any sunshine it would get close to average (17 to 20c). Aleady indications are that June will end up quite a cool month with more uninspiring charts appearing in the further outlook so certainly no 'Flaming June' again this year!