Sunday, 8 February 2015

Weather guide Monday 9th to Sunday 15th February 2015

Headline: Mostly dry with sunny intervals, near normal temperatures, some overnight frost and fog

Last weeks highlights

A mostly dry, rather cold but sunny week week gone. Parts of North and West Wales (WW) had heavier wintry showers than anticipated on Sunday night into Monday, 2 to 4 inches snow  in places such as Deiniolen and Blaenau Ffestiniog, even a slight covering on Anglesey.  A covering over some inland areas of Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion too, we had a <1cm dusting here at Llanwnnen. After Monday very little snow fell though.  Some cold nights last week, Sunday night -5.4c Sennybridge and -5.1c Trawsgoed. Monday was the coldest day of the Winter so far in Coventry max 1.9c and the coldest since March 2013, with many places only reaching 2 to 4c. Severe frost over parts of Wales Monday night, -7.4c Capel Curig, -7.1c Llanwnnen and -5.8c Trawsgoed, in fact every night last week fell below -4c at Llawnnen, with -6.8c Friday night here another severe frost, and colder than any of the official UK Met Office weather stations.  Some coastal stretches did manage a recovery in temperatures to the average by Thursday, Milford Haven mildest at 8.7c, but for most still a chilly day. Plenty of sunshine last week, indeed almost unbroken sunshine for WW on several days.

The week ahead

February has started off very dry and looks set to stay that way up to at least mid month with the coming week anticyclonic. Interestingly the only completely dry (0mm) month I have found in the historical rainfall record (back to 1860) for the Lampeter area was February 1986, however that was a severely cold month with persistent snow cover over the Midlands and parts of Wales. In total contrast to this benign weather last February was very wet and stormy, 287mm rainfall total at Llanwnnen made it the wettest February in the local historical record. So high pressure virtually all the way this week, although there may be a blip with a spell of light rain at some stage on Friday. Cloud amounts perhaps difficult to gauge this week, as some Winter highs can fill up with cloud while others remain largely clear. The cloud cover will dictate where frost and perhaps fog forms during the coming week.

An intense high is centred over Ireland on Sunday, the barometer at Llanwnnen is currently reading 1042mbar. Another frosty start to the day, dry with some hazy sunshine this afternoon, maxima close to the February average at 6 to 8c, a milder 10c possible for coastal Pembrokeshire. Variable cloud, some clear breaks and a widespread frost tonight, lows 0 to -3c, and with fog in places too (a similar theme for most nights in the coming week). There will be areas of cloud on Monday so some places see not much sunshine, while others fare better with some decent sunny spells. Similar temperatures reaching 6 to 9c, coolest where overcast. By Tuesday the high has only slowly transferred to England, a similar picture weather-wise, a frosty start where cloud breaks have permitted perhaps even localised fog patches to thin, then probably extensive cloud cover with only limited sunny intervals for Tuesday, although Cardigan Bay and Anglesey could do better in the sunshine stakes as the wind flow shifts more SE. Maxima again 6 to 9c, little wind.

By Wednesday the high has slipped east into Europe, another dry day, frosty in places to start then variable cloud with some sunny spells, highs a touch cooler at 6 to 8c. Patchy frost and fog again overnight Wednesday with Thursday another dry day with sunshine for the fortunate and maxima near normal at 6 to 8c. Frosty and foggy in places during Thursday night.

Changes for Friday with a deep low passing to the north of Scotalnd, so this could be the only day to see rain in the coming week. It soons clouds over Friday with quite a fresh WSW wind, however the fronts should only be weak with pressure still high to our south over France. Patchy rain and drizzle then for a time on Friday, particularly this should be expected over NW Wales, but no doubt parts of the Midlands escape with yet another completely dry day! Highs Friday 7 to 10c, quite mild.

Some disagreements looking out to next weekend, but further predominantly dry weather is suggested. High pressure if not over England & Wales is close by to the south. Some models do bring weak fronts across giving just a little rain at times, but on the whole a dry weekend with temperatures average to mild (maxima 7 to 11c), with slight overnight frosts likely should skies be clear enough. The mostly dry high pressure dominated weather may even last to the end of the month!

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