Sunday, 1 February 2015

Weather guide Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th February 2015

Headline: Mostly dry, cold and frosty; a few wintry showers; perhaps turning less cold weekend

Last weeks highlights

Quite a mild and mainly dry start to last week. Peak temperatures occurred first thing Wednesday highest being 11.4c Hereford and 10.5c Shawbury but most places got above 9c. An active cold front brought gusty winds, heavy rain and hail showers during Wednesday morning introducing much colder air with wintry showers. This colder (although not especially cold) weather has been with us since for the most part with some further wintry outbreaks.  3 inches of snow lay in the highest suburbs of south Birmingham by Thursday evening, and parts of the East Midlands including Northampton and Leicester had a couple of inches during that night, but as usual it was the Peaks of Derbyshire that caught snow the worst with up to a foot lying for the second time in a fortnight! Friday although still chilly and windy with showers was a less cold day up to the average at 7 or 8c in places and most of the snow away from high ground thawed. Parts of the Midlands had slight but temporary falls again during Friday night - this spell although feeling cold in the wind has certainly been no freeze and the snow has struggled to fall and if so settle for very long. For most of us in West Wales (WW) it has been a case of hail and sleet showers with very little snow except on high ground above 400m. Frosts limited in spite of the recent cold due to a lot of cloud and strong winds which have reached gale force at times, barely getting below zero last week for most of WW. A line of showers (streamer) was most persistent through West Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire throughout Saturday giving high rainfall totals and I suspect coverings of hail and perhaps snow for some hills in that area? The Lampeter area saw whiteovers from heavy hail during Saturday evening and night.

January was a rather average Winter month in terms of temperature and rainfall, although it tended to be quite a wet month across WW. Most of us saw a little snow at times but with no large falls. Some rainfall totals:

Valley 76.6mm
Capel Curig 434.2mm 150%
Trawscoed 166.4mm 137%
Llanwnnen 174.7mm 123%
Pembrey c.120mm 
Shobdon 78.8mm 100%
Coventry 57.2mm
Church Lawford c. 51mm
Little Rissington 78.8mm 111% 

The week ahead

More cold weather but mostly dry, just a few wintry showers about which may give slight coverings in places again. Frost will be more of a feature in the coming week as winds will be lighter along with clear spells on many nights, these frosts quite severe in places, and freezing fog patches may be occurring later in the week.

Still some wintry showers in places on Sunday morning, especially over the Lampeter area with heavy hail again. Plenty of dry, bright though chilly weather this Sunday afternoon with the fresh north wind easing, perhaps a few hail and sleet showers to continue streaming down across SW Wales though. Highs today a rather cold 3 to 5c. Clear spells and falling winds tonight leads to a widespread sharp frost, minima between -2 and -6c. A slack lowish pressure set up for Monday means lighter winds than of late, another mostly dry, bright day, the odd wintry shower here and there cannot be completely ruled out however, but these very few and far between. Cold with sunny spells highs just 2 to 4c. Another cold and frosty night follows minima as low as -6c locally. 

A  keen NE wind develops for Tuesday and Wednesday and there could be some showery troughs moving through in this flow giving wintry showers in places, but again these are expected to be few and far between, the majority having a dry couple of day with sunny intervals. Maxima Tuesday/ Wednesday just 2 to 4c again and feeling bitter in the wind.  Clear spells giving frosty nights lows well below zero again. 

The latter stages of the week sees increasing influence from high pressure west of Ireland meaning plenty of dry weather but remaining cold with sharp overnight frost and freezing fog in places. However the NE wind is still crossing a somewhat unstable North Sea on Thursday so still the chance remains there of an isolated wintry shower, not amounting to much if anything however. Familiar temperatures for Thursday and indeed Friday of 2 to 4c as the decidedly cold spell continues. Exact details depend on the highs positioning but it is likely that it will be centred close by our NW, this means that rather less cold air should feed around the high as we go through next weekend. Suffice to say a dry weekend with some sunshine, frosty and in places foggy by night, and should the fog stick temperatures struggling to get much above zero by day, generally though temperatures recovering closer to average with maxima between 5 and 7c. Things perhaps turning cloudier and milder by next Sunday but remaining dry.

Charts courtesy of: Netweather

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