Sunday, 22 February 2015

Weather guide Monday 23rd February to Sunday 1st March 2015

Headline: Unsettled, often windy with wintry showers and some longer spells of rain; variable temperatures

Last weeks highlights

Mild and quite sunny for Mid and North Wales last Sunday, 11.3c at Mona, Anglesey. Rain and showers Monday but then a mostly dry couple of days with slight overnight frost in places. Mild more widely on Wednesday, 11.9c Hereford and 11.2c Coleshill the top spots. More unsettled from Thursday which was a rather wet day, 43.2mm Capel Curig, 14.4mm at Church Lawford for example amongst the wetter locations. Cold enough for wintry showers on Saturday, plenty of hail showers over Ceredigion, while higher places such as the Brecon Beacons and Peak District, as is typical, caught snow showers giving a couple of inches covering in places. There were only several slight frosts in what was overall a fairly mild week, although last night (Saturday) was colder, -3.7c at Hereford and Pembrey.

The week ahead

An unsettled and often windy week ahead, wintry showers and some longer spells of rain, with some lying snow for high ground. Rather cold Monday and Tuesday, milder Wednesday into Thursday but colder again for Friday, frosts can be expected when we are in the colder episodes this week. Next weekend should be mild at least for a time!

A wet and windy Sunday afternoon, heavy rain at times especially across West Wales (WW) driven by a strong SW wind. Highs Sunday eventually 8 to 10c by early evening. Rain turns more showery this evening with clear intervals, although the more general rain may not clear the East Midlands until 2200. Turning colder after midnight and winds ease enough for a widespread ground frost, down to 0c locally, with the showers turning wintry over WW. Quite a cold and windy Monday, with a deep low close to Scotland. Fresh to strong westerly winds drive fairly frequent showers into WW throughout the day, a mix of rain, sleet, hail and with snow in places (especially above 300m where a covering is possible). Some showers affecting the Midlands too but with better dry, bright intervals between times here, but still some winty showers getting through too. Chilly highs between 4 and 6c Monday, feeling colder in the wind.

A band of more widespread blustery wintry showers moves east during Monday evening, again a covering of snow in places, more especially above 200m or so, but not expected to be problematic, and after midnight the showers become largely restricted to WW where quite a bit of hail is likely, with this too giving slight coverings by dawn. Temperatures prevented from dropping too far Monday night as a cold fresh to strong NW wind keeps up, just a ground frost, minima of 1 or 2c away from immediate coasts. A similar day of wintry showers and sunny intervals on Tuesday too, only parts of the Midlands escaping the worst of these. At least the wind decreases as we go through the afternoon though, rather cold again max 4 to 6c. Showers forming pronounced lines across Wales so for some places quite a wet day with repeated wintry showers, the heavy hail giving coverings and several inches of snow settling on some of the higher ground, such as Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. Clear spells, showers dying down and a lighter breeze gives a widespread frost Tuesday night, down to -3c in places.

An attempt at a ridge of higher pressure for a time Wednesday so a better chance for a dry bright spell but still some showers may be affecting WW. Clouding over through the afternoon though as Atlantic fronts approach these bringing patchy rain to WW by evening. Highs Wednesday 7 to 9c. Rain at times with an increasing wind for Wednesday night, heavier rain getting into WW, we will be in a warm sector of the depression so temperatures rising through the night to reach 9 or 10c before dawn Thursday. An active cold front moves SE probably during Thursday morning with a spell of heavy squally rain and strong to gale force winds. This rain is expected to clear WW by late morning and the East Midlands by mid afternoon to leave a largely dry Thursday afternoon with sunny spells and just the odd shower. Temperatures by mid afternoon 6 to 9c and much less windy. Clear spells and a few wintry showers for Thursday night with a widespread slight frost.

Friday looks another somewhat chilly interlude, a frosty start with a few wintry showers scattered about, but with plenty of dry and bright weather, highs say 6 to 8c. Next weekend and we are getting mixed model signals so the weather cannot be pinned down other than to say likely to continue somewhat unsettled with further showers and even a longer spell of rain, mild at least for a time..

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